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2025-09-15 19:48:33
[Goldman Sachs Strategy Team: US Stocks Expected to See a New Round of Accelerated Growth in 2026] (1) On Monday, Goldman Sachs' strategists recently noted that the US stock market has gradually mitigated the impact of weak labor market data and predicted that US stock prices will see a new round of accelerated growth in 2026. The team, led by David Kostin, stated that market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased this week, a factor that will further support the stock market. (2) The team added that stock investors are generally optimistic about the labor market and believe that the recent slowdown is only temporary. They emphasized that the cooling labor market is actually a "tailwind for corporate profits"—profit margins essentially reflect the difference between prices and input costs (including labor costs). According to estimates, every 100 basis point change in labor cost growth will have a 0.7% impact on S&P 500 earnings per share. Furthermore, the moderate cooling of the labor market also creates conditions for the Federal Reserve to begin a cycle of rate cuts. (3) Notably, this assessment echoes Goldman Sachs' overall expectation of a soft landing for the US economy. The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts in 2025. The Goldman Sachs team believes that with the implementation of interest rate cuts and the recovery of economic growth momentum, the S&P 500 index is expected to achieve a 6% increase by mid-2026. This forecast is based on the outlook for 7% corporate earnings growth in 2026.
