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2025-09-15 20:20:47
[Markets Await the Federal Reserve's Decision, with Multiple Economic Data and Central Bank Dynamics on the Mind] ⑴ The market generally expects the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this Wednesday, with fund futures indicating a 97% probability of a rate cut. Market attention is also focused on Chairman Powell's statement on the path of future rate cuts, despite signs that his "patient" approach is facing opposition. His stance on interest rate policy will be particularly crucial, especially with the Senate likely to confirm Trump's nominee, Stephan Miran, to the Fed. ⑵ This week, several central banks will announce interest rate decisions. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, the Bank of England is likely to maintain its rate at 4.00%, and the Bank of Japan is also expected to keep its rate unchanged at 0.50%. These decisions will provide important guidance on the direction of global monetary policy. ⑶ In terms of economic data, this week will see the release of a series of important data, including the US Empire State Manufacturing Index for September (expected to be 5.0, compared to 11.9 previously), retail sales, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, as well as housing starts and building permits. These data will provide a basis for assessing economic prosperity. ⑷ It is worth noting that despite the optimism, negative news from China cannot be ignored. Factory output and retail sales data for September were weak, recording year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 3.4%, respectively, far below market expectations. At the same time, preliminary investigations indicate that Nvidia may have violated antitrust laws in an acquisition transaction. This news comes amidst the Sino-US trade negotiations, adding to market uncertainty. ⑸ On the trading level, the 10-year US Treasury yield is currently hovering around 4.060%. After the recent volatility, the market has shown momentum for buying on dips, but changes in the slope of the curve and volatility indicate that market sentiment still needs further clarification.
