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2025-09-15 20:27:42
[The US Dollar Sees Short-Term Support, Increasing US Treasury Volatility] ⑴ The surge in short-term interest rates (e.g., the GC rate rising to 4.60%) has directly increased the attractiveness of holding US dollars, providing short-term support for the US dollar exchange rate. ⑵ Tight liquidity and pressure on the interest rate corridor (the GC rate breached the upper limit by 10 basis points) may weaken market demand for medium- and long-term US Treasury bonds, particularly weighing on the prices of short- and medium-term bonds (e.g., the 5-year). ⑶ Strong market expectations for a FOMC rate cut (100% pricing in a 25 basis point rate) limit the dollar's potential to strengthen due to rising short-term interest rates and may exacerbate the bull-bear game in the US Treasury market. ⑷ The outflow pressure from Treasury auctions (US$78 billion settled) directly withdrew market liquidity and was a key technical factor contributing to the short-term upward trend in US Treasury yields. ⑸ The wide spread (43.7 basis points) between interest rate swaps (OIS) and the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reflects the coexistence of market policy expectations and tight spot funding conditions. This divergence has exacerbated US Treasury yield volatility.
