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2025-09-15 20:30:24
[Caixin Futures: Highlights on Ferrous Metals Futures] (1) Rebar: Fluctuating. The reference range for the 01 contract is 3,100-3,180 yuan/ton. Currently, weak realities and strong expectations are in a fierce battle. Supply and demand drivers are weak, but cost support remains. A breakthrough depends on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the initiation of downstream inventory replenishment. Funding indicators indicate a more active increase in long positions in the top 20 positions for the 01 contract. (2) Hot-rolled coil: Fluctuating slightly to the bearish side. Fundamentals are similar to rebar, but funding indicators indicate a slight increase in short positions in the top 20 positions for the 01 contract, with position changes slightly to the bearish side. (3) Iron ore: Recommended 1-5 positive arbitrage positions. Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global shipments are operating at a high level, port storage has fluctuated slightly, and the actual market conflict is not significant. Expectations of pre-holiday inventory replenishment are supporting prices. In the medium term, we will monitor the progress of shipments from the Simandou project and changes in hot metal production. (4) Coking coal: Fluctuating with a relatively strong bias. Growing anti-involutionary expectations and pre-holiday inventory replenishment are boosting the market, but spot price momentum is insufficient (we need to monitor sentiment changes after the second round of price increases and reductions for coke). The basis weakened, and liquidity indicates an increase in both long and short positions in the top 20 positions of the 01 contract, with the increase in long positions being greater. We recommend a short-term buy on a correction. (5) Coke: A long coal, short coke strategy. Coking companies are actively producing, steel mill inventories have reached a safe level, and the tight supply and demand situation has improved. Cost support is strong, but valuations are already high, so chasing the rally is not advisable. (6) Manganese silicon: Fluctuating at a low level. Manganese ore shipments are stable, with factory operations recovering and inventories increasing slightly. Expectations of declining demand are suppressing prices, and insufficient internal driving force is leading to price fluctuations driven by raw materials. Liquidity indicates a decrease in longs and an increase in shorts in the top 20 positions of the 2601 contract, with a bearish bias.
