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2025-09-15 20:31:47
[Caixin Futures: Gold and Non-ferrous Metal Futures Outlook] (1) Gold: Bullish. A higher-than-expected CPI confirms inflation stickiness, while initial jobless claims data reinforce expectations of rate cuts. Expectations of falling real interest rates are supporting gold prices. Global central banks' de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts are long-term positive factors, with the support range shifting down to 823-830 yuan. (2) Alumina: Short on rallies. Recovering production capacity, increasing inventories, and the opening of the import window are exacerbating supply pressures. Fundamentals maintain an oversupply situation, so short on rallies is recommended. (3) Shanghai Aluminum: Long on dips. Market expectations for the peak season of September and October are high, but increased LME Asian warehouse pickups are raising supply concerns. Despite a slight inventory accumulation, the outlook remains bullish. (4) Cast aluminum alloys: Long on dips. Intensifying aluminum scrap market shortages are driving up prices. While the traditional peak season is approaching, demand quality remains uncertain. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, prices are trending higher. (5) Lithium carbonate: Cautiously wait-and-see. CATL's production guidance exceeded expectations, and downstream companies were willing to stock up, but the self-inspection of Yichun mining companies was pending, and uncertainty on the supply side remained.
