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2025-09-15 21:04:48
Is a Manufacturing Cold Wave Coming? A Sharp Drop in New York State Data in September Raises Market Concerns. (1) In September, New York State's manufacturing sector suffered a significant setback. The General Business Conditions Index plummeted from 11.9 in the previous month to -8.7, significantly worse than the expected 5.0 and hitting a three-month low. This decline reminiscent of market concerns sparked by Trump's tariff rhetoric. The New Orders Index plummeted from 15.4 to -19.6, and the Shipments Index fell from 12.2 to -17.3, indicating severe challenges facing production activities. (2) The labor market also showed signs of weakness. The Employment Index turned negative, falling from 4.4 to -1.2, the Hours Worked Index also fell from 0.2 to -5.1, and the Skills Availability Index dropped to -8.8, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sector's ability to absorb employment and overall work intensity. Despite this easing, the Prices Paid Index also contributed to an easing of price pressures. The Prices Paid Index fell from 54.1 to 46.1, a recent low. (3) Despite the bleak short-term outlook, future expectations are not entirely pessimistic. The six-month business conditions index fell slightly to 14.8, while the new orders index edged up to 16.6. However, the shipments index fell from 17.9 to 13.5, and the employment index plummeted to 1.2, its lowest level since August 2016, indicating that businesses are cautious about future hiring.
