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2025-09-15 21:04:56
Hawkish Signals Emerge, Rate Cut Expectations Fluctuate. ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, but looking ahead to the end of 2025, the median forecast from Fed officials in their latest dot plot may still indicate two rate cuts. This suggests that while inflation remains sticky, signs of labor market weakness are gaining increasing attention. ⑵ Despite market expectations for an October rate cut, the Fed Chairman's comments are likely to be cautious, but he may offer some dovish hints at the press conference to guide market sentiment. ⑶ Notably, analysts point out that the urgency of the labor market has overshadowed the difficulty of inflation, a shift that suggests that future policy decisions may be more focused on employment data.
