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2025-09-15 21:46:26
[10-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below 4%: Weak Data and Pre-Central Bank Decision Game] ⑴ US Treasury yields fell across the board in early trading on Monday (Beijing Time), with the 10-year yield retreating to around 4.041%, having previously closed at 4.058% on Friday. ⑵ The 2-year yield also declined, closing at 3.528%, down from Friday's close of 3.555%. ⑶ The weak New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (September Empire State Manufacturing Survey) unexpectedly turned negative, becoming the primary factor holding down yields in the short term. ⑷ Market trading was relatively light, partly due to the Asian market holiday impacting trading volume. ⑸ Traders are closely watching this week's US retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, particularly the updated dot plot, as these factors will have a significant impact on the direction of the bond market. ⑹ Despite recent yield fluctuations, in the long term, the downward trend in yields largely reflects easing inflation concerns and expectations of possible future rate cuts. ⑺ While waiting for more economic signals, investors are weighing the possibilities of different economic scenarios and preparing for key events this week.
