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2025-09-16 09:46:51
USD/JPY Continues Range-Bound Pattern, Market Await Policy Signals 1. Despite occasional fluctuations, USD/JPY has been range-bound since early August, trading primarily between the September 3 high of 146.22 and the August 14 low of 149.13. After retreating from 150.91 on August 1, the exchange rate entered a sideways trading phase on August 4. 2. USD/JPY is currently trading firmly within the daily Ichimoku Cloud (146.65-148.55) and has been trading in a narrow range between 147.26-53 in early trading today. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages, at 146.17 and 148.73 respectively, form important short-term reference points. 3. While actual buying by Japanese importers and options-related trading have provided some support, the narrowing gap between US and Japanese Treasury yields is expected to limit USD/JPY's upside. The market is focusing on the fundamentals of the Fed's rate cut expectations and the Bank of Japan's potential shift to a more hawkish stance. These factors may put pressure on the currency pair in the medium to long term. 4. Options expiring today are worth watching: $2.1 billion in the 145.90-146.00 range, $1 billion in 146.50-60, and $829 million in 147.00; above, $792 million in 147.50-55, and $1 billion in 147.70-148.00 options expiring, which may affect short-term trends.
