Download App

[Caixin Futures: Gold Benefits from Multiple Positive Factors, Diverging Commodity Trends] ⑴ Gold is positioned in a sweet spot between stagflation and recession, while rising initial jobless claims reinforce expectations of a US interest rate cut. ⑵ The market anticipates that if the Federal Reserve is forced to ease without fully controlling prices, real interest rates will decline rapidly and undermine the dollar's credit premium. ⑶ Historical experience shows that the trifecta of "weak growth, loose policy, and sticky inflation" is a favorable scenario for gold. Coupled with global central banks' de-dollarization efforts and frequent geopolitical conflicts, gold's upside potential still outweighs the risk of a correction. ⑷ Short-term fluctuations will not alter the medium-term trend, with gold's support range shifting downward to 823-830 yuan. ⑸ Alumina prices briefly surged in the night session due to anti-involutionary sentiment, but subsequently retreated from their highs. Its fundamentals maintain an oversupply pattern, with weekly operating capacity rebounding and inventories and warehouse receipts continuing to increase. ⑹ The alumina import window has opened, and import expectations are increasing. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and upward momentum is still lacking in the short term. We recommend shorting on rallies and monitoring subsequent policy changes. 7. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting decision, but caution is warranted against the risk of a pullback if the rate cut falls short of expectations. Fundamentally, the market anticipates the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the continued increase in LME Asian warehouse pickups has raised supply concerns. 8. Shanghai aluminum inventories saw a slight buildup this week, with the extent of destocking falling short of expectations. The turning point in this destocking remains to be seen, but the market remains bullish, with a primary strategy of buying on dips. 9. The shortage of scrap aluminum in the cast aluminum alloy market has intensified, with a rush to stock up pushing prices up rapidly. The traditional peak season is approaching, but quality remains to be verified. 10. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, cast aluminum alloys are expected to maintain a relatively strong performance, with a primary strategy of buying on dips, with continued focus on raw material supply, demand recovery, and policy impacts. 11. Lithium carbonate's rebound has continued, driven by anti-involutionary sentiment and strong downstream demand for stockpiling during the peak season. In the short term, prices remain supported below the peak demand season. ⑿ However, the results of the "self-inspection" of Yichun mining companies have not yet been announced, and the uncertainty on the supply side has not been resolved. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and be wary of the risk of news disturbances on the supply side.