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2025-09-16 20:27:44
[Markets Await Key Data, Heating Rate Cut Expectations] ⑴ Macro markets remained calm ahead of the release of key retail sales data, with US Treasury yields flat and the 10-year bond fluctuating in a narrow 2.3 basis point range overnight, indicating that markets are preparing for the upcoming data. August retail sales are expected to be modest, with an overall forecast of 0.2% growth. The core data, excluding autos, is forecast to be 0.4%, and the control data, which more directly influences GDP, is forecast to be 0.4%. ⑵ The market generally believes that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely, although this may be the best option given its relatively slow pace of policy. However, there are divisions within the Federal Reserve, and not all policymakers agree with the White House. Three members (Waller, Bowman, and Miran) are expected to vote for a 50 basis point rate cut, while some may vote to maintain interest rates as a sign of dissatisfaction. ⑶ Trump's side is pushing for the 2025 "dot plot" to show three rate cuts, rather than the current two. If this happens, the market may have already priced in three rate cuts beyond expectations, suggesting a more favorable risk-reward strategy of "selling on rallies." It's worth noting that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will participate in the interest rate decision and vote on the "dot plot." (4) Regarding trading strategies, it's recommended to cover short positions in 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds on rallies. Specifically, short positions in 2-year Treasury bonds can be considered around 3.50%, and short positions in 10-year Treasury bonds around 4.05%, with target ranges of 3.52%-3.56% and 4.03%-4.07%. The 10-year Treasury yield is likely to fluctuate between 4.07% and 4.01%. (5) Tuesday will feature the release of most of this week's key economic data, including international trade prices and retail sales (expected to increase by 0.2%), industrial production (expected to decline by 0.1%), as well as business inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index (expected to rise slightly to 33 points). These data will provide important reference for the market, especially in the context of Trump's tariff remarks causing market concerns. The data performance may affect consumer confidence and corporate decision-making.
