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2025-09-16 20:47:47
[Oil and Gas Production Decline Accelerates, Market Supply Faces a Critical Situation] ⑴ The latest data from the agency shows that global oil and gas field production is declining at an accelerating rate, with mature fields experiencing average annual production declines of 5.6% (conventional oil) and 6.8% (conventional natural gas), respectively. ⑵ This trend indicates a growing global reliance on shale oil and deepwater oil and gas resources, requiring companies to invest more to maintain current production levels. ⑶ The agency's executive director noted that nearly 90% of upstream investment is used annually to offset production losses from existing oil and gas fields, with only a small portion used to meet demand growth. ⑷ If upstream investment were halted, global oil supply would decline by 5.5 million barrels annually, equivalent to the combined production of Brazil and Norway, posing a severe challenge to the market and energy security. ⑸ The decline in natural gas production is also becoming increasingly significant, with annual losses increasing from 180 billion cubic meters to 270 billion cubic meters. (6) It is worth noting that the agency's previous report on clean energy policy has sparked some market concerns, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has criticized the agency's forecasts for suppressing investment and exacerbating market uncertainty. (7) OPEC emphasized that it has always advocated for timely investment in the oil industry to address declining production and meet growing demand.
