Crude oil trading reminder: Geopolitical situation supports oil price rebound. Pay attention to the direction of the Fed's interest rate decision in the short term.
2025-09-17 09:46:38
Brent crude futures fell 1 cent to $68.46 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures also fell 1 cent to $64.51 a barrel.
According to market research, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft warned that some exports may be forced to cut due to the attack in Ukraine. This news has caused market concerns about disruptions in Russian crude oil supply, increasing bullish support for prices.
At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU will accelerate the elimination of Russian fossil fuel imports, further strengthening the market's supply concerns.
Investors are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 16-17. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut to stimulate the economy and boost fuel demand, but some members support a larger 50 basis point rate cut.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out: "Even if there is a short-term 'buy expectations, sell facts' market, there may still be further interest rate cuts in October and December, which will provide continued support for crude oil."
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that in the week ending September 12: crude oil inventories fell by 3.42 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 691,000 barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 1.91 million barrels.
The market had expected a small decline of only 900,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, but the actual decline was much larger. If the official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) matches this, oil prices may find further support.
Looking at the daily WTI crude oil trend, the $64 area has formed a temporary support, which has not been broken after repeated pullbacks. Above it, $67.5-68 is forming strong pressure. If it breaks through, it is expected to hit the $70 mark.
The RSI indicator is in the neutral to strong range, and the MACD is expected to show signs of a golden cross, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually accumulating.
The overall technical analysis shows that oil prices are in a range-bound pattern in the short term, but if they break through the resistance above $68, they will be expected to open up a new round of upward space.
Editor's opinion:
Oil prices are currently being driven by both supply risks and Federal Reserve policy. While short-term support remains strong, upward pressure remains to be broken. The $64-68 range is a viable range to watch. If favorable policy factors and inventory verification combine, oil prices are expected to accelerate towards $70.
According to market research, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft warned that some exports may be forced to cut due to the attack in Ukraine. This news has caused market concerns about disruptions in Russian crude oil supply, increasing bullish support for prices.
At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU will accelerate the elimination of Russian fossil fuel imports, further strengthening the market's supply concerns.
Investors are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 16-17. The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut to stimulate the economy and boost fuel demand, but some members support a larger 50 basis point rate cut.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out: "Even if there is a short-term 'buy expectations, sell facts' market, there may still be further interest rate cuts in October and December, which will provide continued support for crude oil."
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that in the week ending September 12: crude oil inventories fell by 3.42 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 691,000 barrels, and distillate oil inventories increased by 1.91 million barrels.
The market had expected a small decline of only 900,000 barrels in crude oil inventories, but the actual decline was much larger. If the official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) matches this, oil prices may find further support.
Looking at the daily WTI crude oil trend, the $64 area has formed a temporary support, which has not been broken after repeated pullbacks. Above it, $67.5-68 is forming strong pressure. If it breaks through, it is expected to hit the $70 mark.
The RSI indicator is in the neutral to strong range, and the MACD is expected to show signs of a golden cross, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually accumulating.
The overall technical analysis shows that oil prices are in a range-bound pattern in the short term, but if they break through the resistance above $68, they will be expected to open up a new round of upward space.
Editor's opinion:
Oil prices are currently being driven by both supply risks and Federal Reserve policy. While short-term support remains strong, upward pressure remains to be broken. The $64-68 range is a viable range to watch. If favorable policy factors and inventory verification combine, oil prices are expected to accelerate towards $70.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
