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[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Trends Diverge, Geopolitical Factors Support Oil Prices] ⑴ Geopolitical factors have recently driven volatility in the crude oil market, with Ukrainian drones attacking Russian oil pipelines and refineries, and Trump threatening new economic sanctions against Russia. ⑵ As the situation in Russia, Europe, and the Middle East continues to complicate, geopolitical sentiment premiums persist. We expect limited downside for crude oil, with a volatile and positive trend. ⑶ The US has imposed sanctions on some terminal and storage operators, leading to a strong fuel oil spread. We do not recommend an overly bearish outlook. ⑷ Today's spot price of float glass is 1,164 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month. Overall, companies in the Shahe area are experiencing strong shipments. ⑸ The spread of anti-involutionary news has led to a fluctuating upward trend in the market. Considering the seasonal improvement in glass demand in September and October, it is advisable to buy on dips. ⑹ Short-term, exit the market in the 1,250-1,270 resistance zone; short-term long positions are recommended. ⑺ The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with prices firming. Some companies have seen narrow price increases, with the spot-futures basis reported at 01-110 in Hebei Kuti. ⑻ Although the long-term outlook is weak, the downstream glass market is currently strong, and upstream coal costs have stabilized, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. ⑼ Exit the 1350-1360 pressure zone promptly, as the resurgence of anti-involutionary sentiment provides support. ⑽ Liquid caustic soda sales in Shandong Province are sluggish, leading to accumulated inventories at companies. Some companies have lowered their prices by 20 yuan, and prices in major producing areas are stable but weakening. ⑾ Considering the expectation of continued inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and the continued high production of downstream alumina, we are optimistic about the trend of caustic soda. ⑿ The spot price of methanol in Taicang is 2282 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month-on-month. Port inventory pressure continues to increase slightly, and the market is fluctuating widely.