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The Fed's September meeting is imminent, with the market focusing on the dot plot and policy path. ⑴ The Federal Reserve will release its September monetary policy decision and a summary of its latest economic projections (dot plot) at 2:00 AM on Thursday. ⑵ The market generally expects the Fed to cut its policy rate for the first time since December, lowering it to a range of 4%-4.25%. ⑶ The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors are pricing in only a roughly 6% probability of a larger rate cut, and predict a cumulative 75 basis points of cuts at the remaining meetings this year. ⑷ This means the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each meeting before the end of the year. ⑸ The June dot plot shows that policymakers anticipate a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027. ⑹ Of the 19 officials, 7 project no rate cuts in 2025, 2 predict one, 8 predict two, and 2 predict three. 7. The new dot plot may show significant changes: Disappointing employment data and relatively stable inflation readings have prompted investors to shift to a more dovish outlook. 8. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged on August 22nd the rising downside risks to the labor market and predicted that the inflationary effects of tariffs would be short-lived. 9. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%. The preliminary benchmark revision suggests that total nonfarm payrolls in March 2025 will be 911,000 lower than initially estimated. 10. Analysts at TD Securities stated: "Given the recent weak labor force report, forward guidance is likely to lean dovish, but inflation overshoot remains a key risk." 11. Political factors may also influence the dot plot: Senate Republicans confirmed White House economic advisor Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday. 12. Milan is seen as a dovish voice who may support a 50 basis point rate cut and will vote at this meeting.