CITIC Construction Investment Futures: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected, precious metals fall back from highs
2025-09-18 09:33:12
Precious Metals: The highly anticipated September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting has concluded, with the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The FOMC statement noted that downside risks to employment have increased and inflation has risen. The dot plot indicates that two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year. However, Powell remained cautious in his remarks at the post-meeting press conference, stating that this rate cut was a risk-management measure and that a 50 basis point cut lacked broad support. He reiterated the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence. Overall, the Fed meeting did not send unexpectedly dovish signals, and the Fed proceeded cautiously with rate cuts. This has led to a slight pullback in precious metals prices after a sustained surge. However, we believe that with expectations of further rate cuts, precious metals remain strongly supported, and the long-term bull market is expected to continue. Long-term long positions are recommended. The reference range for Shanghai Gold (2512) is 820-850 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver (2512) is 9700-10300 yuan/kilogram.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.91%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2.376738 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 35.336 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best performing sectors were power equipment (2.55%), automobiles (2.05%), and household appliances (1.64%). The worst performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.02%), commerce and retail (-0.98%), and social services (-0.86%). Regarding basis, the IF and IH basis weakened slightly, while the IC and IM basis strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.40% and -2.90%, respectively; while those for IC and IM quarterly contracts are -9.90% and -11.90%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw a volatile upward trend in the previous trading day, with the Shenzhen market slightly outperforming the Shanghai market. Trading volume in both markets saw a slight increase compared to the previous day. Looking at primary sectors, with the exception of power equipment, the automotive and home appliances sectors, which performed well today, are all sectors with relatively low market attention and trading concentration in recent times. This may significantly reflect the ongoing market rotation within these sectors and concept-based sectors. Meanwhile, large-cap weighted sectors such as food and beverages and banks continued to decline slightly, which may contribute to the recent weakness of the large-cap index compared to the small- and medium-cap index. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this morning announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Subsequent decisions will be subject to data adjustments. The Federal Reserve may be entering a new round of rate cuts, which is expected to boost international capital inflows into China's capital markets in the short to medium term. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.91%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%, and the Shenzhen 100 ETF rose 1.36%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.376738 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 35.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing sectors were power equipment (2.55%), automobiles (2.05%), and household appliances (1.64%). The worst-performing sectors were social services (-0.86%), commerce and retail (-0.98%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.02%). The implied volatility of options will fluctuate in the short term, and selling volatility strategies can appropriately control positions in the short term; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. In the long term, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract rose 0.31%, the 10-year bond futures contract rose 0.13%, the 5-year bond futures contract rose 0.1%, and the 2-year bond futures contract rose 0.04%. The yield on the active 30-year bond fell 1.8 basis points to 2.057%, while the yield on the active 10-year bond futures contract fell 1.7 basis points to 1.763%. Regarding inter-product spreads, the 4TST, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures contracts changed by 0.039 yuan, 0.075 yuan, and 0.075 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategy: Sentiment continued to recover, with futures opening lower and closing higher for two consecutive days. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, which is expected to have a positive but limited impact on the domestic bond market. The bond market is stabilizing in the short term, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve due to the risk of an unexpected tightening of liquidity. Regarding operations, we recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach, with the option of shorting TS. A cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-sharp and long-flat. Subsequently, we can gradually adopt an arbitrage strategy of short-short (TS) and long-long (T). Currently, this strategy offers excellent value for money. Waiting for clear signs of tightening liquidity, this arbitrage strategy currently outperforms unilateral strategies. Hedging strategy: The net basis has fallen back to its early September level, providing another opportunity to participate in short hedging.
Industrial silicon: Yesterday, the market saw volatile trading, impacted by weak fundamentals and positive policy expectations. On the one hand, fundamental pressures persist, with Northwest industrial silicon companies continuing to ramp up production, leading to an overall increase in supply. However, downstream polysilicon continues to face pressure from subsequent production cuts. On the other hand, expectations of "anti-involutionary" policies continue to roil the market, but with policies yet to be implemented, expectations are fluctuating. Overall, while industrial silicon fundamentals remain under pressure, the frequent disruptions from anti-involutionary policy expectations may lead to widespread market fluctuations. For trading purposes, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and a short put option strategy with a low strike price may also be considered. The SI2511 contract is priced in the range of 8,500-9,000 RMB/ton.
Ferroalloys: The market continues its upward trend, with downstream procurement primarily based on demand, and positive futures and spot quotes. While there's no strong supply/demand driver, prices remain supported near low-cost levels. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are trading around low-cost levels of 5,500 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton, respectively. In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment, but volatility is likely to remain limited. Focus will be on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and anti-involutionary policies in October. Viewpoint: Continue holding light long futures positions and put options.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance in scrap battery prices. Some recycled lead refineries are planning to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking capacity is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Shanghai Lead prices fluctuated weakly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance in scrap battery prices. Some recycled lead refineries are planning to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking capacity is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Rubber: On Wednesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 56.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 51.65 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.4 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 22,000 tons, or 1.8%, from the previous day. China's total dark rubber social inventory was 788,000 tons, down 0.4% from the previous day. Spot inventory in Qingdao decreased by 1%, while that in Yunnan increased by 2%. Tire 10# in Vietnam decreased by 3%, and total NR inventory decreased by 1%. China's total light-colored rubber inventory reached 447,000 tons, a 4% decrease month-over-month. Among these, old full latex decreased by 2%, 3L decreased by 0.4%, and total RU inventory decreased by 6.5%. Viewpoint: The recent peak of the rainy season in major Southeast Asian producing regions, including Thailand, continues to pose some restrictions on tapping. Rainfall remains scarce in Côte d'Ivoire; therefore, short-term production expansion remains limited, in line with seasonal trends. On the demand side, domestic tire companies are entering a period of concentrated maintenance. With production capacity declining, finished product inventories are being reduced. Over time, demand remains strong (i.e., past expectations are being met). With market expectations cooling, RU and NR prices are experiencing a unilateral correction. Looking back, as the expansion of total demand remains limited (interest rate cuts may not be able to offset the suppression of global demand by tariffs), and the growth of China's domestic demand is realized over time, and in the absence of extreme weather in the production areas this year, the contradictions in the balance sheet will not be prominent, which means that the normalized pricing range will not fluctuate significantly.
Rebar: Last week, rebar production fell by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons. Social inventories increased by 185,700 tons, while on-site inventories decreased slightly by 47,100 tons. Apparent demand fell by 40,000 tons compared to the previous week. Currently, rebar fundamentals have not improved, primarily due to a rapid inventory accumulation that is 1.6023 million tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. As October approaches, market speculation regarding policy is intensifying, and anti-involutionary sentiment is also growing. However, high inventories are holding back futures prices, and any recovery is expected to be limited.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production increased by 109,000 tons, while inventories decreased slightly by 10,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons to 3.2616 million tons. The current fundamentals for HRC are relatively positive. While overall production is high, demand remains resilient. We should monitor the progress of inventory reduction. If demand remains weak, prices remain at risk of falling. Strategically, the 3050-3200 range is recommended for rebar 2601 contracts, and the 3250-3450 range is recommended for HRC 2601 contracts.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.91%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets totaled 2.376738 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 35.336 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best performing sectors were power equipment (2.55%), automobiles (2.05%), and household appliances (1.64%). The worst performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.02%), commerce and retail (-0.98%), and social services (-0.86%). Regarding basis, the IF and IH basis weakened slightly, while the IC and IM basis strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.40% and -2.90%, respectively; while those for IC and IM quarterly contracts are -9.90% and -11.90%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw a volatile upward trend in the previous trading day, with the Shenzhen market slightly outperforming the Shanghai market. Trading volume in both markets saw a slight increase compared to the previous day. Looking at primary sectors, with the exception of power equipment, the automotive and home appliances sectors, which performed well today, are all sectors with relatively low market attention and trading concentration in recent times. This may significantly reflect the ongoing market rotation within these sectors and concept-based sectors. Meanwhile, large-cap weighted sectors such as food and beverages and banks continued to decline slightly, which may contribute to the recent weakness of the large-cap index compared to the small- and medium-cap index. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this morning announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Subsequent decisions will be subject to data adjustments. The Federal Reserve may be entering a new round of rate cuts, which is expected to boost international capital inflows into China's capital markets in the short to medium term. IC and IM are expected to continue to rise due to sentiment, and it is recommended to maintain long positions.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.91%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.61%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.17%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.96%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95%, and the Shenzhen 100 ETF rose 1.36%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 2.376738 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 35.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best-performing sectors were power equipment (2.55%), automobiles (2.05%), and household appliances (1.64%). The worst-performing sectors were social services (-0.86%), commerce and retail (-0.98%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.02%). The implied volatility of options will fluctuate in the short term, and selling volatility strategies can appropriately control positions in the short term; if the fundamentals such as the macro economy and the profits of listed companies improve, there will be sufficient upside space. In the long term, the market may be dominated by a volatile strengthening with the center gradually moving upward. You can pay attention to the covered call strategy of stock index futures long positions combined with selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures: On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract rose 0.31%, the 10-year bond futures contract rose 0.13%, the 5-year bond futures contract rose 0.1%, and the 2-year bond futures contract rose 0.04%. The yield on the active 30-year bond fell 1.8 basis points to 2.057%, while the yield on the active 10-year bond futures contract fell 1.7 basis points to 1.763%. Regarding inter-product spreads, the 4TST, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL futures contracts changed by 0.039 yuan, 0.075 yuan, and 0.075 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategy: Sentiment continued to recover, with futures opening lower and closing higher for two consecutive days. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's September rate cut, which is expected to have a positive but limited impact on the domestic bond market. The bond market is stabilizing in the short term, but the correction is far from over. Be wary of a flattening of the interest rate curve due to the risk of an unexpected tightening of liquidity. Regarding operations, we recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach, with the option of shorting TS. A cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-sharp and long-flat. Subsequently, we can gradually adopt an arbitrage strategy of short-short (TS) and long-long (T). Currently, this strategy offers excellent value for money. Waiting for clear signs of tightening liquidity, this arbitrage strategy currently outperforms unilateral strategies. Hedging strategy: The net basis has fallen back to its early September level, providing another opportunity to participate in short hedging.
Industrial silicon: Yesterday, the market saw volatile trading, impacted by weak fundamentals and positive policy expectations. On the one hand, fundamental pressures persist, with Northwest industrial silicon companies continuing to ramp up production, leading to an overall increase in supply. However, downstream polysilicon continues to face pressure from subsequent production cuts. On the other hand, expectations of "anti-involutionary" policies continue to roil the market, but with policies yet to be implemented, expectations are fluctuating. Overall, while industrial silicon fundamentals remain under pressure, the frequent disruptions from anti-involutionary policy expectations may lead to widespread market fluctuations. For trading purposes, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, and a short put option strategy with a low strike price may also be considered. The SI2511 contract is priced in the range of 8,500-9,000 RMB/ton.
Ferroalloys: The market continues its upward trend, with downstream procurement primarily based on demand, and positive futures and spot quotes. While there's no strong supply/demand driver, prices remain supported near low-cost levels. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are trading around low-cost levels of 5,500 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton, respectively. In the short term, prices may fluctuate strongly due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment, but volatility is likely to remain limited. Focus will be on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and anti-involutionary policies in October. Viewpoint: Continue holding light long futures positions and put options.
Shanghai Lead: Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance in scrap battery prices. Some recycled lead refineries are planning to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking capacity is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Shanghai Zinc: Shanghai Lead prices fluctuated weakly overnight. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, current smelter raw material inventories remain adequate, while recyclers are cautious about falling prices and seeking higher prices, leading to weak performance in scrap battery prices. Some recycled lead refineries are planning to continue suspending production for maintenance, making it difficult for them to shift to a low-load operation in the short term. On the primary lead side, the supply and demand situation for lead concentrate remains tight, and processing fees are expected to stabilize due to the replenishment of imported ore. On the supply side, refineries in North China have partially resumed production, while those in East China remain stable, resulting in a tight overall supply situation. On the demand side, purchasing demand in the battery industry is unlikely to see a significant improvement, and overall restocking capacity is limited. Overall, macroeconomic sentiment is improving, but fundamental improvements are limited, keeping lead prices primarily volatile at low levels.
Rubber: On Wednesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 56.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 51.65 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.8 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.4 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. As of September 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, down 22,000 tons, or 1.8%, from the previous day. China's total dark rubber social inventory was 788,000 tons, down 0.4% from the previous day. Spot inventory in Qingdao decreased by 1%, while that in Yunnan increased by 2%. Tire 10# in Vietnam decreased by 3%, and total NR inventory decreased by 1%. China's total light-colored rubber inventory reached 447,000 tons, a 4% decrease month-over-month. Among these, old full latex decreased by 2%, 3L decreased by 0.4%, and total RU inventory decreased by 6.5%. Viewpoint: The recent peak of the rainy season in major Southeast Asian producing regions, including Thailand, continues to pose some restrictions on tapping. Rainfall remains scarce in Côte d'Ivoire; therefore, short-term production expansion remains limited, in line with seasonal trends. On the demand side, domestic tire companies are entering a period of concentrated maintenance. With production capacity declining, finished product inventories are being reduced. Over time, demand remains strong (i.e., past expectations are being met). With market expectations cooling, RU and NR prices are experiencing a unilateral correction. Looking back, as the expansion of total demand remains limited (interest rate cuts may not be able to offset the suppression of global demand by tariffs), and the growth of China's domestic demand is realized over time, and in the absence of extreme weather in the production areas this year, the contradictions in the balance sheet will not be prominent, which means that the normalized pricing range will not fluctuate significantly.
Rebar: Last week, rebar production fell by 67,500 tons to 2.1193 million tons. Social inventories increased by 185,700 tons, while on-site inventories decreased slightly by 47,100 tons. Apparent demand fell by 40,000 tons compared to the previous week. Currently, rebar fundamentals have not improved, primarily due to a rapid inventory accumulation that is 1.6023 million tons higher than the previous year, leading to accumulating industry conflicts. As October approaches, market speculation regarding policy is intensifying, and anti-involutionary sentiment is also growing. However, high inventories are holding back futures prices, and any recovery is expected to be limited.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production increased by 109,000 tons, while inventories decreased slightly by 10,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons to 3.2616 million tons. The current fundamentals for HRC are relatively positive. While overall production is high, demand remains resilient. We should monitor the progress of inventory reduction. If demand remains weak, prices remain at risk of falling. Strategically, the 3050-3200 range is recommended for rebar 2601 contracts, and the 3250-3450 range is recommended for HRC 2601 contracts.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
