The US dollar index rebounded slightly, maintaining range fluctuations, waiting for direction selection
2025-09-24 13:20:52
The US dollar index (DXY) rebounded to 97.30 in Asian trading on Wednesday, reversing two days of decline. Market focus is on the upcoming release of the US second-quarter real GDP annualized data and the core PCE price index, the latter being the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and providing key clues to the policy outlook.
In his speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the U.S. central bank must maintain a careful balance between persistent inflationary pressures and a weak job market, which he called "a challenging situation."
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool showed that market expectations for the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October have risen to 92%, up from 90% the previous day. This expectation echoes the recent cooling of US economic data.
According to the preliminary PMI data for September released by S&P Global, U.S. business activity has declined, with the composite PMI falling from 54.6 in August to 53.6, the manufacturing PMI falling to 52.0, and the service PMI falling from 54.5 to 53.9, indicating a weakening of momentum in the private sector.
Beyond monetary policy expectations, risk aversion also supported the dollar. At the UN General Assembly, Trump stated that if Russia refused to end the conflict, the United States was ready to implement a "new round of even stronger tariffs." He also criticized European countries for purchasing Russian energy, saying it was equivalent to "financing the conflict," and urged the EU to join the US in ensuring the effectiveness of the tariffs.
Market participants believe that this statement has increased uncertainty, thereby boosting the safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
Market analysts commented: "The dollar's upward trend is supported by both Fed policy expectations and safe-haven funds. If the upcoming core PCE data is higher than expected, it may further weaken the expectation of rate cuts, thereby strengthening the dollar."
From the daily chart, the US dollar index rebounded after finding support near 96.80, and the price has now re-entered the 97 mark. The short-term moving average turned upward, indicating a certain recovery momentum.
The key resistance level above is in the 97.80-98.00 range, a break of which would open up further upside potential, while the support level below is still around 96.50. The overall structure suggests that the US dollar may continue to strengthen in the short term, but the upside potential depends on whether this week's US core PCE data meets market expectations.
Editor's opinion:
The current rebound of the US dollar reflects that the market is in a dual game: on the one hand, the weakening of US economic data has led the market to expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in October. On the other hand, inflation remains stubborn and Trump’s tariff threats have increased risk aversion, pushing up dollar buying.
In the short term, the US dollar index may fluctuate around 97, but its future trend will depend on the upcoming core PCE data and the development of the geopolitical situation.
In his speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the U.S. central bank must maintain a careful balance between persistent inflationary pressures and a weak job market, which he called "a challenging situation."
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool showed that market expectations for the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October have risen to 92%, up from 90% the previous day. This expectation echoes the recent cooling of US economic data.
According to the preliminary PMI data for September released by S&P Global, U.S. business activity has declined, with the composite PMI falling from 54.6 in August to 53.6, the manufacturing PMI falling to 52.0, and the service PMI falling from 54.5 to 53.9, indicating a weakening of momentum in the private sector.
Beyond monetary policy expectations, risk aversion also supported the dollar. At the UN General Assembly, Trump stated that if Russia refused to end the conflict, the United States was ready to implement a "new round of even stronger tariffs." He also criticized European countries for purchasing Russian energy, saying it was equivalent to "financing the conflict," and urged the EU to join the US in ensuring the effectiveness of the tariffs.
Market participants believe that this statement has increased uncertainty, thereby boosting the safe-haven demand for the US dollar.
Market analysts commented: "The dollar's upward trend is supported by both Fed policy expectations and safe-haven funds. If the upcoming core PCE data is higher than expected, it may further weaken the expectation of rate cuts, thereby strengthening the dollar."
From the daily chart, the US dollar index rebounded after finding support near 96.80, and the price has now re-entered the 97 mark. The short-term moving average turned upward, indicating a certain recovery momentum.
The key resistance level above is in the 97.80-98.00 range, a break of which would open up further upside potential, while the support level below is still around 96.50. The overall structure suggests that the US dollar may continue to strengthen in the short term, but the upside potential depends on whether this week's US core PCE data meets market expectations.
Editor's opinion:
The current rebound of the US dollar reflects that the market is in a dual game: on the one hand, the weakening of US economic data has led the market to expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in October. On the other hand, inflation remains stubborn and Trump’s tariff threats have increased risk aversion, pushing up dollar buying.
In the short term, the US dollar index may fluctuate around 97, but its future trend will depend on the upcoming core PCE data and the development of the geopolitical situation.
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