API inventory decline and stagnant production in Kurdish region support the bullish outlook for crude oil
2025-09-24 19:34:59
On Wednesday (September 24), U.S. crude oil futures rose, closing at $64.11 per barrel, up 1.10%.
Oil prices are currently supported by multiple supply-side disruptions. A key catalyst was the failure of a plan to restart crude oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region, which halted 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil originally intended to be shipped through Turkey. The market had previously sold off in anticipation of a resumption of exports, but this trend reversed after producers demanded debt repayment guarantees before moving forward with the deal.
Two other factors are contributing to the short-term bullish sentiment: Chevron's forced reduction of Venezuelan crude oil exports due to U.S. licensing issues, and uncertainty surrounding the European Union's potential imposition of new sanctions on Russian crude oil exports. Analysts say these developments are offsetting the market's widespread expectation of a global crude oil oversupply in the coming months, especially given the slight increase in OPEC+ production and weaker global demand expectations.
API data shows crude oil inventories fall, traders await official data
The bullish tone was reinforced by preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.82 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 1.05 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 518,000 barrels in the week ended September 19.
The official report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) due later on Wednesday is expected to show increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories and a decrease in distillate fuel stocks, according to a Reuters survey of analysts.
Distillates remain a key market focus, with analysts citing low distillate inventories in OECD economies and concerns about Russian infrastructure, exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks on fuel depots in Russia's Bryansk and Samara regions, as factors that could tighten global diesel supplies.
As geopolitical rhetoric heats up, markets focus on Russia's risk premium
Geopolitical news continues to roil the crude oil market. President Trump's comments supporting Ukraine's restoration of its full territory suggest a potential policy shift, potentially further strengthening Western restrictions on Russian energy exports. While symbolic, such statements could still increase the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, particularly as EU countries consider imposing tougher sanctions on Russia.
Crude oil price forecast: short-term bullish outlook maintained above key support levels
In the short term, crude oil prices are supported by both technical and fundamental factors. This upward momentum will intensify if EIA data confirms a decline in US crude oil inventories. While global oversupply remains a medium-term concern, current supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions suggest a bullish outlook for crude oil prices in the short term.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil 4-hour chart source: Yihuitong)
The price of U.S. crude oil is running above the middle track of the Bollinger band (62.84) and close to the upper track (64.12), indicating that the current price is in a relatively strong range and has a tendency to test the upper track pressure upward.
The RSI value is 63.11, which is between 50-70, indicating that the bulls currently have a certain advantage in the market, but have not yet entered the overbought area, which means that the price still has certain upward potential.
MACD indicator: DIFF (0.16) is above DEA (-0.04), and the MACD column (0.40) is positive, showing a golden cross and the red column continues to expand, which shows that the short-term bullish momentum is constantly increasing and there is a possibility of further price increases.
Price pattern: The price rebounded after receiving support near the previous low of 61.61 and is currently facing suppression from a downward trend line (the blue slanted line connecting the previous highs of 66.02 and 64.76).
If the price can effectively break through this trend line and the upper track of the Bollinger band, it is expected to open up greater room for growth in the future; if it fails to break through, a correction may occur.
Oil prices are currently supported by multiple supply-side disruptions. A key catalyst was the failure of a plan to restart crude oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region, which halted 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil originally intended to be shipped through Turkey. The market had previously sold off in anticipation of a resumption of exports, but this trend reversed after producers demanded debt repayment guarantees before moving forward with the deal.
Two other factors are contributing to the short-term bullish sentiment: Chevron's forced reduction of Venezuelan crude oil exports due to U.S. licensing issues, and uncertainty surrounding the European Union's potential imposition of new sanctions on Russian crude oil exports. Analysts say these developments are offsetting the market's widespread expectation of a global crude oil oversupply in the coming months, especially given the slight increase in OPEC+ production and weaker global demand expectations.
API data shows crude oil inventories fall, traders await official data
The bullish tone was reinforced by preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.82 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 1.05 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose by 518,000 barrels in the week ended September 19.
The official report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) due later on Wednesday is expected to show increases in crude oil and gasoline inventories and a decrease in distillate fuel stocks, according to a Reuters survey of analysts.
Distillates remain a key market focus, with analysts citing low distillate inventories in OECD economies and concerns about Russian infrastructure, exacerbated by Ukrainian drone attacks on fuel depots in Russia's Bryansk and Samara regions, as factors that could tighten global diesel supplies.
As geopolitical rhetoric heats up, markets focus on Russia's risk premium
Geopolitical news continues to roil the crude oil market. President Trump's comments supporting Ukraine's restoration of its full territory suggest a potential policy shift, potentially further strengthening Western restrictions on Russian energy exports. While symbolic, such statements could still increase the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, particularly as EU countries consider imposing tougher sanctions on Russia.
Crude oil price forecast: short-term bullish outlook maintained above key support levels
In the short term, crude oil prices are supported by both technical and fundamental factors. This upward momentum will intensify if EIA data confirms a decline in US crude oil inventories. While global oversupply remains a medium-term concern, current supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions suggest a bullish outlook for crude oil prices in the short term.
Technical Analysis
(WTI crude oil 4-hour chart source: Yihuitong)
The price of U.S. crude oil is running above the middle track of the Bollinger band (62.84) and close to the upper track (64.12), indicating that the current price is in a relatively strong range and has a tendency to test the upper track pressure upward.
The RSI value is 63.11, which is between 50-70, indicating that the bulls currently have a certain advantage in the market, but have not yet entered the overbought area, which means that the price still has certain upward potential.
MACD indicator: DIFF (0.16) is above DEA (-0.04), and the MACD column (0.40) is positive, showing a golden cross and the red column continues to expand, which shows that the short-term bullish momentum is constantly increasing and there is a possibility of further price increases.
Price pattern: The price rebounded after receiving support near the previous low of 61.61 and is currently facing suppression from a downward trend line (the blue slanted line connecting the previous highs of 66.02 and 64.76).
If the price can effectively break through this trend line and the upper track of the Bollinger band, it is expected to open up greater room for growth in the future; if it fails to break through, a correction may occur.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
