Gold hesitates on the edge of a record high: should it jump or take a breath before 3800?
2025-09-24 22:00:40
On Wednesday (September 24), spot gold entered a period of consolidation after hitting a record high. The previous day's high was confirmed at $3,790.97, and it traded around $3,760 in early US trading. The Federal Reserve's cautious tone regarding its easing path, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and stable US Treasury yields have contributed to the temporary sideways movement. However, geopolitical risks and expectations of another rate cut this year provide a buffer for bulls. Overall, prices remain in the main upward trend, pending data confirmation.
Last week's 25 basis point rate cut opened up the possibility of further policy easing, but the Fed still emphasized "data dependence." Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that there is no "pre-set path" and noted that the balance of risks has shifted toward employment: excessive conservatism could leave the "inflation mission unfinished," while maintaining restrictive interest rates for too long would unnecessarily harm employment. This dilemma has led to a short-term market trend that is "dovish but steady." Officials' stances diverged: Michelle Bowman favored a more decisive stance in supporting employment, warning that insufficient action would "fall behind the curve." Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee stated that if inflation continues to decline, "there is room for rate cuts." Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic cautioned that corporate cost plans remain sticky and inflation risks remain. For gold, the dominant tone of the official chorus is not a hawkish one, but rather a background noise of "cautious dovishness."
Regarding the dollar and yields, the US dollar index rebounded to 97.80, coupled with stable US Treasury yields, limiting gold's upward movement. However, the market remains firmly pricing in further interest rate cuts this year, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Geopolitically, Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes against Russian energy facilities; these tensions have increased safe-haven assets, giving gold an additional "sentiment premium."
Looking ahead, key data releases will focus on Thursday's initial jobless claims, the second-quarter annualized GDP and durable goods orders, and Friday's core PCE. If core PCE continues to move toward the 2% target, the Fed's cautiously dovish stance will be reinforced. If a "sticky rebound" materializes, the synergy between the dollar and yields could trigger a deeper pullback in gold.
The daily chart shows signs of consolidation at a high level after an accelerated upward trend. The Bollinger Bands are significantly open, with the price moving up along the upper band and repeatedly touching it. The upper band is currently at $3837.63, the middle band is at $3561.50, and the lower band is at $3285.37, indicating that volatility expansion has not yet ended. The price has effectively broken through the previous levels of 3740 and 3690, with the former becoming a key short-term support level and the latter a trend defense level.
From a historical perspective, after the dense area around 3311.40-3438.80 was broken through with large volume, the trend entered the extended phase of "volume leading the way - price and volume rising together." In terms of indicators, MACD shows DIFF 86.90, DEA 78.14, and red bar 17.52, which are in the strong zone above the zero axis, but the bar is slightly convergent compared to the previous period, indicating that the momentum is slowing down marginally; the relative strength index RSI (14) is around 79, a typical overbought range.
The price is forming a narrow hanging band between 3790.97 and the upper Bollinger Band. If it fails to break through 3837.63 quickly and with significant volume, a mean reversion pattern of "surge higher and then retest 3740" is likely to occur. If it quickly breaks through 3790.97 and extends to the upper Bollinger Band, it will be necessary to observe whether it is accompanied by a volume breakout and a long bullish body to confirm that it is not a false breakout. Overall, the upper resistance is 3790.97 and 3837.63, respectively. The lower support is 3740, 3690, and further to 3561.50 (the middle Bollinger Band).
(Short-term 1-3 days)
With officials' cautiously dovish stance and the US dollar index's short-term pullback holding the dual forces, gold prices are likely to enter a period of high-level consolidation driven by data. If core PCE, initial claims, durable goods, and secondary GDP figures are generally benign this week, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between 3740 and 3790.97, potentially challenging 3837.63. If unexpectedly strong data leads to a continued rise in the US dollar and a rise in yields, the probability of a pullback to 3690 increases, technically signaling a healthy recovery within the trend. In the short term, focus on two price action signals: a significant breakout above 3790.97 and a retest of 3740.
(Midline 2-6 weeks)
Until inflation reaccelerates or growth rebounds significantly, the medium-term framework of "falling real interest rates and persistent risk aversion" remains bullish for gold. Fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical friction, and slowing global growth momentum will maintain demand for gold. As long as the middle Bollinger Band 3561.50 remains above the weekly level, the structural advantage of medium-term bulls remains intact, and trend trading remains dominant, but the expected return-to-volatility ratio will be lower than during the previous period of straight-line gains.
Fundamentals:
Last week's 25 basis point rate cut opened up the possibility of further policy easing, but the Fed still emphasized "data dependence." Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that there is no "pre-set path" and noted that the balance of risks has shifted toward employment: excessive conservatism could leave the "inflation mission unfinished," while maintaining restrictive interest rates for too long would unnecessarily harm employment. This dilemma has led to a short-term market trend that is "dovish but steady." Officials' stances diverged: Michelle Bowman favored a more decisive stance in supporting employment, warning that insufficient action would "fall behind the curve." Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee stated that if inflation continues to decline, "there is room for rate cuts." Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic cautioned that corporate cost plans remain sticky and inflation risks remain. For gold, the dominant tone of the official chorus is not a hawkish one, but rather a background noise of "cautious dovishness."
Regarding the dollar and yields, the US dollar index rebounded to 97.80, coupled with stable US Treasury yields, limiting gold's upward movement. However, the market remains firmly pricing in further interest rate cuts this year, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Geopolitically, Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes against Russian energy facilities; these tensions have increased safe-haven assets, giving gold an additional "sentiment premium."
Looking ahead, key data releases will focus on Thursday's initial jobless claims, the second-quarter annualized GDP and durable goods orders, and Friday's core PCE. If core PCE continues to move toward the 2% target, the Fed's cautiously dovish stance will be reinforced. If a "sticky rebound" materializes, the synergy between the dollar and yields could trigger a deeper pullback in gold.
Technical aspects:
The daily chart shows signs of consolidation at a high level after an accelerated upward trend. The Bollinger Bands are significantly open, with the price moving up along the upper band and repeatedly touching it. The upper band is currently at $3837.63, the middle band is at $3561.50, and the lower band is at $3285.37, indicating that volatility expansion has not yet ended. The price has effectively broken through the previous levels of 3740 and 3690, with the former becoming a key short-term support level and the latter a trend defense level.
From a historical perspective, after the dense area around 3311.40-3438.80 was broken through with large volume, the trend entered the extended phase of "volume leading the way - price and volume rising together." In terms of indicators, MACD shows DIFF 86.90, DEA 78.14, and red bar 17.52, which are in the strong zone above the zero axis, but the bar is slightly convergent compared to the previous period, indicating that the momentum is slowing down marginally; the relative strength index RSI (14) is around 79, a typical overbought range.
The price is forming a narrow hanging band between 3790.97 and the upper Bollinger Band. If it fails to break through 3837.63 quickly and with significant volume, a mean reversion pattern of "surge higher and then retest 3740" is likely to occur. If it quickly breaks through 3790.97 and extends to the upper Bollinger Band, it will be necessary to observe whether it is accompanied by a volume breakout and a long bullish body to confirm that it is not a false breakout. Overall, the upper resistance is 3790.97 and 3837.63, respectively. The lower support is 3740, 3690, and further to 3561.50 (the middle Bollinger Band).
Market outlook:
(Short-term 1-3 days)
With officials' cautiously dovish stance and the US dollar index's short-term pullback holding the dual forces, gold prices are likely to enter a period of high-level consolidation driven by data. If core PCE, initial claims, durable goods, and secondary GDP figures are generally benign this week, gold prices are expected to fluctuate between 3740 and 3790.97, potentially challenging 3837.63. If unexpectedly strong data leads to a continued rise in the US dollar and a rise in yields, the probability of a pullback to 3690 increases, technically signaling a healthy recovery within the trend. In the short term, focus on two price action signals: a significant breakout above 3790.97 and a retest of 3740.
(Midline 2-6 weeks)
Until inflation reaccelerates or growth rebounds significantly, the medium-term framework of "falling real interest rates and persistent risk aversion" remains bullish for gold. Fiscal uncertainty, geopolitical friction, and slowing global growth momentum will maintain demand for gold. As long as the middle Bollinger Band 3561.50 remains above the weekly level, the structural advantage of medium-term bulls remains intact, and trend trading remains dominant, but the expected return-to-volatility ratio will be lower than during the previous period of straight-line gains.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
