Silver prices (XAG/USD) hovered around $49.10 in Asian trading on Thursday, still failing to break through the all-time high of $49.55 set on Wednesday.

Safe-haven demand has eased recently as geopolitical tensions eased - the US president announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed on the first phase of a peace plan that could end the two-year conflict and release hostages, which was confirmed by Israel, Hamas and mediator Qatar.

Despite this, silver prices may continue to attract buying. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting showed that most officials believed that further interest rate cuts may be needed this year.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is currently pricing in a 92.5% probability of a rate cut in October and a 78% probability of another rate cut in December. Some officials pointed out that financial conditions suggest that policy may not be particularly tight, and most participants believe that downside risks to employment have increased, while upward pressure on inflation has not increased significantly.

Furthermore, the US government shutdown entered its ninth day, with the Senate again rejecting a bipartisan budget proposal. Delays in economic data releases have raised the risk of layoffs in the public sector. Private data showed both the ADP employment figures and the ISM PMI employment index pointing to a contraction in job activity, further increasing silver's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Silver is currently hovering around $49.10, still below Wednesday's all-time high of $49.55. Short-term trends suggest that if prices steadily break through $49.55 and rise above the psychologically important $50.00 level, silver could potentially move further up to the $50.50–51.00 range.

On the other hand, if the support level of $48.50 is broken, it may fall back to $48.00 or even $47.50. Overall, silver prices face resistance near their historical highs, while the short-term support zone can provide support for rebounds. We should pay attention to the breakthrough of key resistance and support to judge the subsequent trend.

Editor's opinion:

Although weakening safe-haven demand has suppressed silver prices in the short term, expectations of a Fed rate cut and the delayed economic data due to the US government shutdown have supported silver prices. Focus should be on the FOMC speech, US employment data, and the progress of the government shutdown to determine the possibility of silver prices breaking through historical highs in the short term.