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2025-10-10 20:40:53
[The alarm bells are ringing again in the U.S. housing market, and homebuilders are facing a full bearish outlook] ⑴ Bank of America Merrill Lynch has lowered the target prices of nine U.S. homebuilders, ranging from 1.1% to 11.8%, due to weak demand and policy uncertainty. ⑵ Specific adjustments to key corporate targets include: DR Horton from US$175 to US$165, Lennar from US$133 to US$125, and Pulte Group from US$145 to US$140. ⑶ Analysts pointed out that the resale market accounts for 73% of housing inventory, and it is difficult for builders to solve the housing affordability problem alone. The government may introduce supply-side policies to suppress stock prices. ⑷ Current housing prices have soared 45% compared to 2020, and mortgage rates have surged 418 basis points. Affordability continues to hover at historical lows, seriously restricting the recovery of market demand. ⑸ Although the original ratings are maintained, the collective reduction in target prices reflects that the industry is facing the dual squeeze of macro pressure and policy risks.
