The US dollar index continues to rebound, waiting for the box pressure test
2025-10-23 11:20:57
However, according to market surveys, the US government shutdown has led to the delay in the release of key economic data, including non-farm payrolls (NFP), increasing market uncertainty.

In addition, there are reports that the US government is considering restricting the export of high-tech products using US software to Asian countries, including laptops and jet engines, in response to recent export controls, which has potential impact on trade concerns and the US dollar trend.
In terms of Fed policy expectations, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with almost a 97% probability, and the probability of a rate cut in December is about 96%.
In addition, according to market research, in an economist poll, 115 out of 117 respondents predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% in October. As for the number of interest rate cuts throughout the year, 83 economists expected two and 32 expected one.
Overall, the US dollar may rebound in the short term due to the positive support of easing global trade sentiment, but at the same time, it faces uncertainties such as the government shutdown, lagging economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts, and market sentiment is volatile.
The US dollar index rebounded from its recent lows during the Asian session. The daily chart suggests a short-term trend that remains strong, but the overall range is limited. Key resistance is at 99.50–100.00, a break of which could extend to 100.50. Support is at 98.50–98.80, a break below which could lead to a retest of 98.00.

Editor's opinion:
The US dollar index's recent performance has been supported by expectations of easing global trade sentiment, but fundamentals remain impacted by the US government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve policy. Any short-term rebound may face pressure from high levels. Attention should be paid to changes in trade policy, the pace of data releases, and the Fed's interest rate cuts, while caution should be exercised against unexpected fluctuations caused by headlines.
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