Super Week is coming: Global market outlook during a policy-intensive period
2025-10-24 17:37:00
Next week (October 27-31), global markets will experience a period of intense policy activity and events: US-China trade negotiations; a gathering of key financial institutions, central banks, and commissions at the Financial Street Forum to release policy signals; the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan to announce interest rate decisions on the same day; and the APEC summit to focus on new paths for Asia-Pacific cooperation. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has created uncertainty surrounding the release of core inflation data. The interplay of data vacuum and policy maneuvers will significantly amplify market volatility. Investors should closely monitor key meeting statements and negotiation progress to capture structural opportunities amidst uncertainty.
From Saturday (October 25th) to Monday (October 27th), Vice Premier He Lifeng led a delegation in Malaysia to continue economic and trade consultations with the United States. The U.S. delegation was represented by Treasury Secretary Bensont and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides engaged in dialogue on core issues in the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relationship.
The highlight of the day, Monday (October 27), is the opening of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference (running through October 30). People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, State Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing will attend and deliver keynote speeches. The event will focus on "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping."
At the same time, China released the year-on-year profit data of large-scale industrial enterprises in September. Combined with the added value of large-scale industries in the previous month, we can focus on observing whether the driving force of corporate profit growth has shifted from volume growth to price recovery and profit margin improvement.
In Europe, Germany released its October IFO business climate index and the UK released its October CBI retail sales difference, providing evidence for the strength of the economic recovery in the eurozone and the UK.
On Tuesday (October 28), global consumer data was released intensively. Australia released the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending October 26, and Germany released the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for November.
The key data point for the day was the Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index. Given the absence of US data, this index has become a key indicator of US economic growth momentum.
On Wednesday (October 29), the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data were released successively. It is necessary to pay attention to the short-term guidance of inventory changes on international oil prices.
Australia released its third-quarter CPI data, a key indicator for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy adjustments. The strength of the data will influence the direction of the Australian dollar exchange rate. The Bank of Canada also announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. On September 17, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
Thursday (October 30) is the absolute focus of this week, with global policies and geopolitical agenda reaching a climax.
Many central banks will announce their interest rate decisions: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the market expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. At the same time, the market is paying attention to whether the meeting will mention the timetable for the end of the balance sheet reduction process; the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%.
The European Central Bank is expected to keep the three major interest rates stable, with the refinancing rate at 2.15%, and central banks of various countries will hold press conferences.
In terms of economic data, the United States, Germany and France will simultaneously release GDP data, and Germany will also disclose CPI data. However, the originally planned release of the U.S. third-quarter core PCE data (the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve) still faces the risk of delay due to the government shutdown.
Another major event of the day was the 2025 APEC Leaders' Summit hosted by South Korea. Leaders from many countries gathered to focus on the theme of "The Sustainable Tomorrow We Build - Connectivity, Innovation, Prosperity". Artificial intelligence cooperation, supply chain resilience and inclusive growth became core topics. The participation of executives from technology giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft may generate new signals of industry cooperation.
On Friday (October 31st), global macroeconomic data reached its final stage. China released its October PMI data, which serves as an important reference for stock market valuations.
Europe and Japan simultaneously released October CPI year-on-year data, providing an inflation basis for subsequent policy adjustments by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
In the US, the PCE price index and Chicago PMI data for September were originally scheduled for release, but their release depends on the progress of the government shutdown. If the data is not released, the market will further rely on private sector data and central bank officials' speeches to judge the economic direction, exacerbating short-term volatility.
In addition to core policies and data, investors need to be wary of three potential risks: First, if economic and trade negotiations fail to reach a consensus, it will suppress sentiment towards risky assets.
Second, if the differences within the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on policy paths are highlighted at the press conference, market expectations may be quickly revised, triggering sharp short-term fluctuations in the US dollar and the euro.
Third, if the government shutdown continues beyond expectations, it will lead to more data delays, exacerbate market information asymmetry, and boost the attractiveness of safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. At the same time, the market expects the US government to continue its shutdown next week. If the US government resumes operations ahead of schedule, it will also cause shocks to multiple financial markets.
During the consultation
From Saturday (October 25th) to Monday (October 27th), Vice Premier He Lifeng led a delegation in Malaysia to continue economic and trade consultations with the United States. The U.S. delegation was represented by Treasury Secretary Bensont and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides engaged in dialogue on core issues in the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relationship.
Financial Street Opens: Policy Signals Resonate with US-China Negotiations
The highlight of the day, Monday (October 27), is the opening of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference (running through October 30). People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, State Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing will attend and deliver keynote speeches. The event will focus on "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping."
At the same time, China released the year-on-year profit data of large-scale industrial enterprises in September. Combined with the added value of large-scale industries in the previous month, we can focus on observing whether the driving force of corporate profit growth has shifted from volume growth to price recovery and profit margin improvement.
In Europe, Germany released its October IFO business climate index and the UK released its October CBI retail sales difference, providing evidence for the strength of the economic recovery in the eurozone and the UK.
Consumption data leads the way: Confidence indices of multiple countries reveal economic resilience
On Tuesday (October 28), global consumer data was released intensively. Australia released the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending October 26, and Germany released the GfK Consumer Confidence Index for November.
The key data point for the day was the Conference Board's October Consumer Confidence Index. Given the absence of US data, this index has become a key indicator of US economic growth momentum.
Bank of Canada leads the way: inflation data and interest rate decision first
On Wednesday (October 29), the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data were released successively. It is necessary to pay attention to the short-term guidance of inventory changes on international oil prices.
Australia released its third-quarter CPI data, a key indicator for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy adjustments. The strength of the data will influence the direction of the Australian dollar exchange rate. The Bank of Canada also announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. On September 17, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
Super decision day: interest rates of the three major central banks are announced together with the APEC summit
Thursday (October 30) is the absolute focus of this week, with global policies and geopolitical agenda reaching a climax.
Many central banks will announce their interest rate decisions: The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the market expects it to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. At the same time, the market is paying attention to whether the meeting will mention the timetable for the end of the balance sheet reduction process; the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%.
The European Central Bank is expected to keep the three major interest rates stable, with the refinancing rate at 2.15%, and central banks of various countries will hold press conferences.
In terms of economic data, the United States, Germany and France will simultaneously release GDP data, and Germany will also disclose CPI data. However, the originally planned release of the U.S. third-quarter core PCE data (the inflation indicator most valued by the Federal Reserve) still faces the risk of delay due to the government shutdown.
Another major event of the day was the 2025 APEC Leaders' Summit hosted by South Korea. Leaders from many countries gathered to focus on the theme of "The Sustainable Tomorrow We Build - Connectivity, Innovation, Prosperity". Artificial intelligence cooperation, supply chain resilience and inclusive growth became core topics. The participation of executives from technology giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft may generate new signals of industry cooperation.
Data finale: PMI and inflation data set the tone for month-end sentiment
On Friday (October 31st), global macroeconomic data reached its final stage. China released its October PMI data, which serves as an important reference for stock market valuations.
Europe and Japan simultaneously released October CPI year-on-year data, providing an inflation basis for subsequent policy adjustments by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
In the US, the PCE price index and Chicago PMI data for September were originally scheduled for release, but their release depends on the progress of the government shutdown. If the data is not released, the market will further rely on private sector data and central bank officials' speeches to judge the economic direction, exacerbating short-term volatility.
Risk Warning: Three major variables may cause market disturbances
In addition to core policies and data, investors need to be wary of three potential risks: First, if economic and trade negotiations fail to reach a consensus, it will suppress sentiment towards risky assets.
Second, if the differences within the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on policy paths are highlighted at the press conference, market expectations may be quickly revised, triggering sharp short-term fluctuations in the US dollar and the euro.
Third, if the government shutdown continues beyond expectations, it will lead to more data delays, exacerbate market information asymmetry, and boost the attractiveness of safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. At the same time, the market expects the US government to continue its shutdown next week. If the US government resumes operations ahead of schedule, it will also cause shocks to multiple financial markets.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
