Download App

[Caixin Futures: Intertwined Bullish and Bearish Factors in the Energy and Chemicals Market] ⑴ The Trump administration recently canceled the Budapest summit and imposed sanctions on Rosneft. The EU officially adopted its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which may prompt countries like India to reduce their purchases of Russian oil. ⑵ International oil prices rebounded sharply. Considering that OPEC+ may implement another small production increase at its meeting this Sunday, sentiment has turned neutral, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. ⑶ The US and EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. The US sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies have triggered a strong response, and expectations of a reduction in high-sulfur fuel oil supply remain. ⑷ Prices rebounded in line with crude oil. Given the significant macroeconomic uncertainty, OPEC+ may implement another small production increase at its meeting this Sunday, weakening the upward momentum of fuel oil. ⑸ After the price cut, some mid- and downstream companies are mainly replenishing stocks at low prices, and the purchasing attitude of the industry remains cautious. Currently, glass supply is gradually turning positive year-on-year, while demand is still declining significantly year-on-year. ⑹ High inventory levels in the upstream and midstream remain a significant pressure, and the fundamentals are weak. In the short term, the market is showing resilience due to the easing of trade tensions and stronger commodity sentiment. ⑺ This is primarily due to a rebound in the market price due to undervaluation, and further shorting is still possible on rallies above 1,130 yuan/ton. ⑻ Today, the domestic soda ash market is stable and relatively firm. The soda ash utilization rate is 87.29%, with a slight increase and some companies recovering. ⑼ Production and utilization are relatively high, but market drivers are insufficient. Although the production of Alxa Phase II may be delayed, soda ash supply is still increasing significantly. ⑽ Short-term high coal costs have limited the decline, but the inherent driving force is weak. This is a follower product, and shorting on rallies is still strategically feasible. ⑾ On October 28th, the Shandong liquid caustic soda market remained weak, with some companies continuing to lower prices. At the end of the month, most companies had increased inventories, and sales were weak. ⑿ Overall, the supply side remains loose, and on the demand side, deliveries from major downstream companies have increased slightly. However, non-aluminum companies have not seen peak season restocking demand, and fundamentals have not shown signs of improvement. The market is expected to fluctuate and remain weak. ⒀Today, the spot price in Taicang is 2210 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of the northern route in Inner Mongolia is 2022.5 yuan, down 15 yuan. Some of the domestic methanol market is weak, and corporate auctions have been average. ⒁The long-term basis of the port methanol market has strengthened, and spot negotiations have been average. There are expectations of overseas gas restrictions in the medium and long term. ⒂However, in the short term, methanol's own port inventory is still high, and the MTO economics are rapidly squeezed. Domestic and imported methanol remain abundant, and the supply and demand side is weakening. The market may still be volatile and weak.