Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-10-31 20:00:38
[US Repo Rates Surge to 4.25%, Halloween Liquidity Alarm Sounds] ⑴ The general guarantee rate surged 19 basis points to 4.25% on Halloween, reflecting settlement pressure caused by a $58 billion outflow. ⑵ The opening bid price was 25 basis points higher than the upper limit of the 3.75%-4.00% interest rate corridor, continuing the recent upward trend in overnight rates. ⑶ The Federal Reserve's repo facility offered a 4.00% execution rate at 20:30 Beijing time and 01:30 the following day, with a liquidity quota of $500 billion. ⑷ Yesterday's two operations only raised $6.2 billion, and although the execution rate was better than the market level, it failed to effectively attract demand. ⑸ Month-end fund allocation drove increased demand for reverse repo operations, and this pattern may continue today. ⑹ The 20-year bond premium remained stable, despite new bond settlement pressure, showing the resilience of demand for certain bonds. (7) Auction announcements for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds will be released on November 5th, and hedging demand may boost buying in these maturities. (8) Federal funds futures pricing indicates a 68% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, down 7 percentage points from yesterday. (9) The auction stop rates for 1-month and 2-month Treasury bills were 3.910% and 3.890%, respectively, with short-term rates remaining relatively stable. (10) The 0x3 overnight index swap rate was 3.759%, 48.1 basis points lower than the 10-day average SOFR, implying a 92% probability of another rate cut.
