Has India betrayed Russia? Trump claims India has essentially "stopped buying Russian oil."
2025-11-07 14:20:06
US President Donald Trump said trade negotiations with India are progressing well and he may visit the country next year, indicating that the pressure on India has eased.
Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday (November 6) that India "has essentially stopped buying oil from Russia," and said he would visit the country in 2026 if Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended an invitation.
Trump recalled his last visit to India, calling Modi "his friend" and "a great man."
However, in recent months, tensions between India and the United States have continued to rise, with experts warning that a lack of understanding between the two leaders has led to a rift in bilateral relations.
Experts point out that a series of issues have led to the recent deterioration of India-US relations: the high tariffs imposed by the United States, the $100,000 application fee for H1B visas, Trump's repeated claims that he had mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and India's continued purchase of Russian crude oil, all of which have cast a shadow over relations between New Delhi and Washington.
India currently faces tariffs of up to 50% on its exported goods.
"Negotiations between New Delhi and Washington, D.C. are still ongoing, and both sides are optimistic about reaching a deal by the end of the year, and could even achieve results in the coming weeks," said Alexandra Herman, head of Southeast Asia research at Oxford Economics.
She stated that tariffs on Indian goods could be reduced from the current 50% to 20%, which would bring India to a level similar to that of Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, or the Philippines.
Herman added that due to disagreements over purchasing Russian oil, agricultural imports, and commitments to make large-scale investments in the United States, India "may not be able to reduce its base tariffs to the level of Japan and South Korea at 15%."
Last month, the United States announced sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which will officially take effect on November 21. As a result, Indian refiners have begun to reduce their imports of Russian crude oil.
As major refiners reduced their purchases, the discount of Russian crude oil to the Brent benchmark reached its highest level in Asia in a year.
India's Ministry of Petroleum and Gas did not immediately respond to inquiries regarding India's plans to cut Russian oil imports.
Pratik Pandey, head of Asia Pacific oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, pointed out: "In the long run, it is unrealistic for India to completely get rid of Russian oil."
He added that as the discount on Russian crude oil continues to widen, New Delhi’s “economy first” strategy will face an unprecedented test.
In the short term, this provides a clear bullish impetus for international crude oil prices (especially benchmark prices such as Brent), but uncertainties remain in the medium to long term. It signifies that geopolitics is strongly reshaping the global energy trade landscape, forcing major consuming countries like India to make trade-offs between political and economic interests. Traders will closely watch the final terms of the US-India trade agreement, India's subsequent crude oil purchase data, and how Russia responds to the challenge of hindered exports; these factors will determine the sustainability and extent of oil price support.
Taking into account OPEC+ production policies, global crude oil demand prospects, US shale oil production, and other key factors, weak short-term demand and concerns about oversupply will continue to put pressure on oil prices.
On Friday (November 7) in Asian trading, US crude oil rose slightly by 0.8% to around the $60/barrel mark.
(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)
At 14:19 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $59.95 per barrel.
The US-India rivalry and the relationship between their leaders under high tariffs
Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday (November 6) that India "has essentially stopped buying oil from Russia," and said he would visit the country in 2026 if Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended an invitation.
Trump recalled his last visit to India, calling Modi "his friend" and "a great man."
However, in recent months, tensions between India and the United States have continued to rise, with experts warning that a lack of understanding between the two leaders has led to a rift in bilateral relations.
Experts point out that a series of issues have led to the recent deterioration of India-US relations: the high tariffs imposed by the United States, the $100,000 application fee for H1B visas, Trump's repeated claims that he had mediated a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and India's continued purchase of Russian crude oil, all of which have cast a shadow over relations between New Delhi and Washington.
India currently faces tariffs of up to 50% on its exported goods.
"Negotiations between New Delhi and Washington, D.C. are still ongoing, and both sides are optimistic about reaching a deal by the end of the year, and could even achieve results in the coming weeks," said Alexandra Herman, head of Southeast Asia research at Oxford Economics.
She stated that tariffs on Indian goods could be reduced from the current 50% to 20%, which would bring India to a level similar to that of Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, or the Philippines.
Herman added that due to disagreements over purchasing Russian oil, agricultural imports, and commitments to make large-scale investments in the United States, India "may not be able to reduce its base tariffs to the level of Japan and South Korea at 15%."
Last month, the United States announced sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which will officially take effect on November 21. As a result, Indian refiners have begun to reduce their imports of Russian crude oil.
As major refiners reduced their purchases, the discount of Russian crude oil to the Brent benchmark reached its highest level in Asia in a year.
India's shift towards disrupting Russian oil supplies makes a long-term decoupling unlikely.
India's Ministry of Petroleum and Gas did not immediately respond to inquiries regarding India's plans to cut Russian oil imports.
Pratik Pandey, head of Asia Pacific oil and gas research at Rystad Energy, pointed out: "In the long run, it is unrealistic for India to completely get rid of Russian oil."
He added that as the discount on Russian crude oil continues to widen, New Delhi’s “economy first” strategy will face an unprecedented test.
In the short term, this provides a clear bullish impetus for international crude oil prices (especially benchmark prices such as Brent), but uncertainties remain in the medium to long term. It signifies that geopolitics is strongly reshaping the global energy trade landscape, forcing major consuming countries like India to make trade-offs between political and economic interests. Traders will closely watch the final terms of the US-India trade agreement, India's subsequent crude oil purchase data, and how Russia responds to the challenge of hindered exports; these factors will determine the sustainability and extent of oil price support.
Taking into account OPEC+ production policies, global crude oil demand prospects, US shale oil production, and other key factors, weak short-term demand and concerns about oversupply will continue to put pressure on oil prices.
On Friday (November 7) in Asian trading, US crude oil rose slightly by 0.8% to around the $60/barrel mark.
(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)
At 14:19 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $59.95 per barrel.
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