A Tale of Two Extremes: Record-Breaking Inventories and Geopolitical Conflicts as a Trigger – Where Will Oil Prices Go?
2025-11-07 21:50:26
On the previous trading day, oil prices rose to the $60.50 mark due to the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but then fell due to the decline in US stocks and the contraction in risk appetite. However, the prices quickly recovered their losses by the close.

This article briefly lists recent important events.
The US continues to restrict Russian oil companies from boosting oil prices.
Swiss commodities giant Gunvor has officially withdrawn its $22 billion takeover bid for Lukoil's international business, after the U.S. Treasury Department explicitly expressed its opposition to the deal, directly accusing the company of being a "puppet" of Russia.
"President Trump has made it clear that this war must end immediately."
"As long as Putin continues to wage this pointless Russia-Ukraine conflict, Gunvor, the Kremlin's puppet company, will never be able to obtain operating and profit-making licenses," the U.S. Treasury Department emphasized in a statement from the X platform.
China's crude oil imports surge
my country has accelerated the construction of its crude oil reserves, which may come in handy by the end of 2025 as the United States imposes restrictions on Russia's top oil companies and global oil flows shift again.
Import data shows that my country's crude oil imports performed strongly in October.
The attack in Ukraine shut down Lukoil's main oil refinery, putting pressure on Russia.
The Ukrainian drone strike on the previous trading day successfully shut down the Volgograd refinery operated by Lukoil, bringing one of Russia's largest fuel processing facilities to a standstill.
The attack ignited fires in the main crude oil distillation and hydrocracking units, severely damaging a facility that accounts for about 5% of Russia's total refining output.
India reduces oil purchases from Russia
In an interview with reporters at the White House on Thursday, Trump said that India has “basically stopped buying oil from Russia” and that he would visit the country in 2026 if Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended an invitation to him.
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not immediately respond to media inquiries about the country’s reduction in Russian oil imports.
Prateek Pandey, Head of Oil and Gas Research for Asia Pacific at Rystad Energy, said, “Completely eliminating Russian oil is unrealistic for India in the long run,” adding that New Delhi’s “economy-first” approach will be put to the test more than ever as Russian crude becomes available at greater discounts.
Updated storage methods limit oil price increases
As transit oil volumes continue to increase, Windward Aviation reported a record high in maritime oil shipments this month, due to both anti-Russian restrictions on tankers and other vessels, and "additional Middle Eastern cargo."
Meanwhile, Gunvor's CEO said that while oil operations in floating storage are at record highs due to restrictions on Russian and Iranian crude, the record volume in floating storage is keeping the global market balanced and preventing oversupply.
Technical Analysis:
The December futures contract for US crude oil shows that although oil prices were dragged down at the end of the day due to the decline in US stocks and the contraction in risk appetite, they ultimately held the key support level of 59.40 for both days and did not even touch the secondary support level of 58.48. At present, oil bulls still have a chance to fight back.

(Daily chart of US crude oil December futures contract, source: FX678)
At 21:49 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $59.94/95 per barrel.
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