EUR/USD attempted a rebound but encountered strong resistance.
2025-11-10 18:41:43
On Monday (November 10), the euro/dollar pair edged lower, trading around 1.1565 during the European session. The dollar rose slightly against the euro, influenced by expectations that the US government shutdown would end soon.
US Dollar: US Shutdown Nearing its End
Democrats agreed to support a stopgap bill proposed by Republicans that would provide funding for some government departments until January 30, in exchange for an extension of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. This revised proposal still needs approval from the House of Representatives and then be sent to President Trump for his signature, a process that could take several days.
The reopening of the U.S. federal government is expected to boost consumer confidence, which has been severely damaged in recent weeks. Data released last Friday showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November was 50.3, the lowest level in three and a half years.
The dollar came under pressure as signs that the federal government might soon reopen boosted investor confidence following a series of weak economic data. Global stock markets have climbed.
While some believe that the end of the government shutdown could have a positive impact on the foreign exchange market, thus pushing the dollar down, the actual effects are likely more complex. In fact, progress in ending the government shutdown is more likely to be reflected in risk-sensitive foreign exchange cross rates rather than directly affecting the dollar.
As the US shutdown nears its end, several noteworthy follow-up issues arise. The dollar has benefited in recent weeks due to the lack of significant US economic data releases. This data gap meant that potentially negative indicators of an economic slowdown were also absent. Now, with the shutdown nearing its conclusion, this situation may change.
Euro: Factors are needed to drive prices up
Last week, the euro/dollar found support below 1.15, thus stabilizing its price. Most consider 1.15 to be the bottom of the pair's price range, but further gains still require external catalysts. The resolution of the government shutdown and the delayed release of US economic data could both contribute to price increases. However, given the start of this week, these factors seem unlikely to truly drive prices higher.
Regarding Eurozone data, today's Sentix investor confidence index fell short of expectations. The German ZEW index will be released tomorrow. Furthermore, Eurozone third-quarter GDP data will be released later this week, with a projected quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2%.
Technical Analysis
(EUR/USD 4-hour chart source: EasyForex)
From the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has broken through the 1.1520 and 1.1540 levels. The price is fluctuating near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1668 high to the 1.1468 low.
On the upside, the pair faces resistance around 1.1595, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the high of 1.1668 to the low of 1.1468, and coincides with the 100-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.
The first major resistance level is at 1.1620. On the 4-hour chart, a major downtrend line and the 200-period simple moving average form resistance here. A close above the 1.1620 resistance level could push the pair up to 1.1680; further gains could initiate a steady upward trend with a target of 1.1750.
On the downside, the currency pair may find support at 1.1540, with key support at 1.1520. A close below 1.1520 could trigger a pullback; further declines could test the 1.1465 level.
At 18:33 Beijing time, the euro/dollar exchange rate was 1.1562/63, unchanged.
US Dollar: US Shutdown Nearing its End
Democrats agreed to support a stopgap bill proposed by Republicans that would provide funding for some government departments until January 30, in exchange for an extension of subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. This revised proposal still needs approval from the House of Representatives and then be sent to President Trump for his signature, a process that could take several days.
The reopening of the U.S. federal government is expected to boost consumer confidence, which has been severely damaged in recent weeks. Data released last Friday showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November was 50.3, the lowest level in three and a half years.
The dollar came under pressure as signs that the federal government might soon reopen boosted investor confidence following a series of weak economic data. Global stock markets have climbed.
While some believe that the end of the government shutdown could have a positive impact on the foreign exchange market, thus pushing the dollar down, the actual effects are likely more complex. In fact, progress in ending the government shutdown is more likely to be reflected in risk-sensitive foreign exchange cross rates rather than directly affecting the dollar.
As the US shutdown nears its end, several noteworthy follow-up issues arise. The dollar has benefited in recent weeks due to the lack of significant US economic data releases. This data gap meant that potentially negative indicators of an economic slowdown were also absent. Now, with the shutdown nearing its conclusion, this situation may change.
Euro: Factors are needed to drive prices up
Last week, the euro/dollar found support below 1.15, thus stabilizing its price. Most consider 1.15 to be the bottom of the pair's price range, but further gains still require external catalysts. The resolution of the government shutdown and the delayed release of US economic data could both contribute to price increases. However, given the start of this week, these factors seem unlikely to truly drive prices higher.
Regarding Eurozone data, today's Sentix investor confidence index fell short of expectations. The German ZEW index will be released tomorrow. Furthermore, Eurozone third-quarter GDP data will be released later this week, with a projected quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2%.
Technical Analysis
(EUR/USD 4-hour chart source: EasyForex)
From the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has broken through the 1.1520 and 1.1540 levels. The price is fluctuating near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1668 high to the 1.1468 low.
On the upside, the pair faces resistance around 1.1595, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downtrend from the high of 1.1668 to the low of 1.1468, and coincides with the 100-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart.
The first major resistance level is at 1.1620. On the 4-hour chart, a major downtrend line and the 200-period simple moving average form resistance here. A close above the 1.1620 resistance level could push the pair up to 1.1680; further gains could initiate a steady upward trend with a target of 1.1750.
On the downside, the currency pair may find support at 1.1540, with key support at 1.1520. A close below 1.1520 could trigger a pullback; further declines could test the 1.1465 level.
At 18:33 Beijing time, the euro/dollar exchange rate was 1.1562/63, unchanged.
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