On Monday (November 10), WTI crude oil futures held steady during the European session after recovering some of the overnight gains. Prices were between the 50-day moving average of $61.48 and the 20-day moving average of $59.61.



Support lies within the retracement range of $59.99-$58.47, with last week's low of $58.83 forming a mid-level support. Until the bulls break above the 50-day moving average or the bears decisively break below $58.47, the market will likely maintain a range-bound trading pattern.

Progress on the government shutdown triggers risk appetite.

The U.S. Senate's passage of the first phase of a vote to end the 40-day government shutdown injected some risk appetite into markets, including oil. Traders are betting that the agreement could restore government spending and boost demand in the world's largest oil consumer. This procedural vote paves the way for government funding until January, pending House approval and the president's signature.

However, market optimism regarding demand remains cautious. More than 2,800 flights were canceled in the U.S. on Sunday, marking the worst disruption to air travel since the government shutdown began, raising concerns about short-term jet fuel consumption. That said, if the shutdown agreement is ultimately implemented, some of the lost demand could rebound quickly in the coming weeks.

Supply concerns continue to escalate amid accumulating inventory.

Despite potential bullish factors in the overall economic environment, supply-side pressures continue to weigh on oil price increases. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude both fell by about 2% last week, marking their second consecutive week of declines, driven by concerns about oversupply. OPEC+ will slightly increase production in December, but has no plans for further increases in the first quarter, signaling a cautious stance.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories continued to climb, while floating inventories in Asia surged. Escalating sanctions on Russian oil led to a readjustment of supply routes, but Chinese demand growth lagged due to import quota restrictions. This contradiction between rising global inventories and unstable demand from major consuming countries has set an upward ceiling for oil prices.

Developments in Russia have added uncertainty, but have not yet had a clear impact.

Russia remains an uncertainty. The attack on the Tuapse refinery, the escalating production disruptions at Lukoil, and the approaching November 21 deadline for the US to sever all business ties with Russia have all increased geopolitical risks. However, these events have not yet translated into an immediate supply shock or driven a clear direction in crude oil prices, at least for now.

Outlook: Unless key price levels are broken, the market is expected to remain range-bound.


(WTI crude oil daily chart source: FX678)

From a technical perspective, crude oil is stuck in a stalemate. The 50-day moving average around $61.48 is providing strong resistance, and bulls need a decisive break above this level to open up further upside potential. Conversely, a break below the Fibonacci support level of $58.47 could trigger a new round of selling. Until a clear breakout occurs at these key levels, the market is expected to continue its sideways consolidation with no clear direction.

In summary, traders are closely watching the developments of the shutdown agreement, but weak demand signals and rising inventories continue to weigh on oil prices. The market has not yet formed a clear trend, and a flexible approach is necessary.