Ukraine launched a coordinated attack on Russian energy facilities, heightening geopolitical tensions and causing oil prices to surge by over 2%.
2025-11-15 07:37:45
Oil prices surged on Friday, with both Brent and U.S. crude rising by more than 2%, after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian energy hub led to a complete halt to oil exports from the port of Novorossiysk, raising concerns about global supply.
The attack damaged port facilities and injured people, disrupting the supply of crude oil by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to 2% of global supply. Analysts pointed out that this attack on the Russian port was far larger in scale and had a more significant impact than previous attacks.
Meanwhile, the U.S. sanctions on Rosneft's transactions will take effect on November 21, further exacerbating market concerns about the stability of Russian oil supplies. Despite an increase in the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs, geopolitical risks have become a key factor dominating oil price trends.
Ukraine has confirmed that, in conjunction with the attack on the port of Novorossiysk, it also launched coordinated strikes against oil refineries in Russia's Saratov region and fuel storage facilities in the Engels district. These actions are part of Ukraine's efforts to pressure Russia into peace talks, but their impact on global energy supplies continues to spread. With the deadline for Western sanctions approaching, investors are closely watching for further potential disruptions to Russian oil trade flows.
Barclays stated that if Russian crude oil exports decline significantly, Brent crude prices could rise above $85 per barrel, far exceeding the bank's previous forecast of $66 per barrel for 2026. Barclays noted that "geopolitical tensions remain high, but oil flows have been largely unaffected," reiterating that this poses an upside risk to oil prices.
Despite the rise of electric vehicles, oil demand is generally continuing to grow along the long-term trend before the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank believes that demand will not peak in the short term. The bank also stated that the escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, as well as the US military buildup in the Caribbean, pose upside risks to oil prices.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that if NATO decides to attack Russia, Russia will respond using all available means.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that dialogue between Moscow and Washington is still ongoing, but unfortunately progress is not as expected. With the new US administration taking office, the US has a clear desire to restart the dialogue.
Venezuelan National Assembly (Parliament) President Rodríguez said on the 13th that the so-called "anti-drug" operation by the United States is a political pretext, and its real purpose is to plunder Venezuela's oil resources. Speaking at a conference of sovereignty and peace jurists in Miranda state in northern Venezuela, Rodríguez said that the US's aggressive actions serve its domestic economic and energy interests, and that the US government is attempting to overthrow the legitimate government of Venezuela in order to seize the country's wealth.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly oil market report released on Thursday that the global oil market supply-demand imbalance is worsening. The agency raised its forecasts for global oil supply growth this year and next, and anticipates the oversupply problem will become more severe by 2026.
The IEA stated in its report: "The global oil market is increasingly unbalanced in terms of supply and demand, with global oil supply continuing to grow while oil demand growth remains moderate by historical standards." The agency raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to approximately 3.1 million barrels per day and its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, both increases of approximately 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's estimate.
A recent report indicates that due to supply growth continuing to outpace demand, global oil supply is projected to exceed demand by 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026, a figure further expanding from the 3.97 million barrels per day forecast in last month's report. This projection highlights the growing oversupply pressure facing the global oil market and could significantly impact future oil price trends.
Data released by the EIA on Thursday showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased sharply last week, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories fell far less than market expectations. Crude oil inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels to 427.6 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.96 million barrel increase; gasoline inventories fell by 945,000 barrels to 205.1 million barrels, compared to an expected decrease of 1.89 million barrels; in addition, U.S. net crude oil imports increased by 849,000 barrels per day, further exacerbating supply pressures.
Following the end of the government shutdown, U.S. economic data will begin to be released gradually next week, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing a revised schedule Friday afternoon. The agency also stated that a September jobs report will be released on November 21 (next Friday). The Census Bureau indicated it will release its delayed September construction spending, inventory, and international trade data early next week, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not yet specified when it will release the preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP. Other government reports showing September retail sales, wholesale prices, and trade data are likely to be released relatively quickly, as statistical agencies had already collected most of this information before the shutdown and only need to process it.
The attack damaged port facilities and injured people, disrupting the supply of crude oil by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, equivalent to 2% of global supply. Analysts pointed out that this attack on the Russian port was far larger in scale and had a more significant impact than previous attacks.
Meanwhile, the U.S. sanctions on Rosneft's transactions will take effect on November 21, further exacerbating market concerns about the stability of Russian oil supplies. Despite an increase in the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs, geopolitical risks have become a key factor dominating oil price trends.
Ukraine has confirmed that, in conjunction with the attack on the port of Novorossiysk, it also launched coordinated strikes against oil refineries in Russia's Saratov region and fuel storage facilities in the Engels district. These actions are part of Ukraine's efforts to pressure Russia into peace talks, but their impact on global energy supplies continues to spread. With the deadline for Western sanctions approaching, investors are closely watching for further potential disruptions to Russian oil trade flows.
Barclays stated that if Russian crude oil exports decline significantly, Brent crude prices could rise above $85 per barrel, far exceeding the bank's previous forecast of $66 per barrel for 2026. Barclays noted that "geopolitical tensions remain high, but oil flows have been largely unaffected," reiterating that this poses an upside risk to oil prices.
Despite the rise of electric vehicles, oil demand is generally continuing to grow along the long-term trend before the COVID-19 pandemic. The bank believes that demand will not peak in the short term. The bank also stated that the escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, as well as the US military buildup in the Caribbean, pose upside risks to oil prices.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that if NATO decides to attack Russia, Russia will respond using all available means.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that dialogue between Moscow and Washington is still ongoing, but unfortunately progress is not as expected. With the new US administration taking office, the US has a clear desire to restart the dialogue.
Venezuelan National Assembly (Parliament) President Rodríguez said on the 13th that the so-called "anti-drug" operation by the United States is a political pretext, and its real purpose is to plunder Venezuela's oil resources. Speaking at a conference of sovereignty and peace jurists in Miranda state in northern Venezuela, Rodríguez said that the US's aggressive actions serve its domestic economic and energy interests, and that the US government is attempting to overthrow the legitimate government of Venezuela in order to seize the country's wealth.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in its monthly oil market report released on Thursday that the global oil market supply-demand imbalance is worsening. The agency raised its forecasts for global oil supply growth this year and next, and anticipates the oversupply problem will become more severe by 2026.
The IEA stated in its report: "The global oil market is increasingly unbalanced in terms of supply and demand, with global oil supply continuing to grow while oil demand growth remains moderate by historical standards." The agency raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to approximately 3.1 million barrels per day and its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, both increases of approximately 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month's estimate.
A recent report indicates that due to supply growth continuing to outpace demand, global oil supply is projected to exceed demand by 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026, a figure further expanding from the 3.97 million barrels per day forecast in last month's report. This projection highlights the growing oversupply pressure facing the global oil market and could significantly impact future oil price trends.
Data released by the EIA on Thursday showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased sharply last week, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories fell far less than market expectations. Crude oil inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels to 427.6 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.96 million barrel increase; gasoline inventories fell by 945,000 barrels to 205.1 million barrels, compared to an expected decrease of 1.89 million barrels; in addition, U.S. net crude oil imports increased by 849,000 barrels per day, further exacerbating supply pressures.
Following the end of the government shutdown, U.S. economic data will begin to be released gradually next week, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing a revised schedule Friday afternoon. The agency also stated that a September jobs report will be released on November 21 (next Friday). The Census Bureau indicated it will release its delayed September construction spending, inventory, and international trade data early next week, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not yet specified when it will release the preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP. Other government reports showing September retail sales, wholesale prices, and trade data are likely to be released relatively quickly, as statistical agencies had already collected most of this information before the shutdown and only need to process it.
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