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2025-11-17 15:48:06
Morgan Stanley Releases 2026 Outlook for the US Dollar and Commodities: ⑴ Morgan Stanley predicts the US dollar index will fall to 94 in the first half of next year, before rebounding to around 99, roughly equivalent to current levels. ⑵ The bank expects global growth to slow under the influence of US tariff policies, potentially leading to a K-shaped economic divergence. ⑶ Under the baseline scenario, the bank remains bullish on US stocks, predicting a 14% rise in the S&P 500. ⑷ Morgan Stanley predicts the European Stoxx index will rise by only 4% and the emerging market index will fall by 1% during the same period. ⑸ In commodities, gold prices are expected to rise to $4,500 per ounce, and copper prices to reach $10,600 per ton. ⑹ Brent crude oil will remain around $60 per barrel due to a softer supply-demand balance.
