November 26th Financial Breakfast: Expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve continue to rise, gold prices hit a one-week high, and the framework of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement drags down oil prices.
2025-11-26 07:26:15
On Wednesday (November 26, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $4133.60 per ounce, after holding steady on Tuesday and hitting its highest level since November 14. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December continued to rise, with the probability now at 85%. US crude oil traded around $58.08 per barrel, with prices continuing their decline on Tuesday, mainly due to Ukraine's indication that it might accept a peace agreement framework proposed by the United States, raising concerns about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the return of Russian oil supplies to the market.
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announced the budget plan, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr held a press conference on monetary policy.
U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 660 points, primarily driven by rising market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Although relatively weak performance in technology stocks limited the Nasdaq's gains, all three major indexes still closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.43% to close at 47,112.45 points; the S&P 500 gained 0.91% to close at 6,765.89 points; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.67% to close at 23,025.59 points.
The latest economic data provides strong support for an interest rate cut. September retail sales data showed weak consumption, the producer price report indicated continued cooling inflation, and the deterioration in the consumer confidence index exceeded expectations. Influenced by these factors, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has surged from 50.1% a week ago to 84.7%.
In terms of individual stocks, the technology sector showed divergence. Nvidia, a leading AI company, fell 2.6%, while Alphabet rose 1.5% due to reports of negotiations with Meta regarding AI chip supply, with Meta itself surging 3.8%. The retail sector performed particularly well, with Kohl's soaring 42.5% and Abercrombie & Fitch jumping 37.5%, both companies raising their annual earnings forecasts.
A new development has emerged on the policy front: US Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that Trump is likely to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chairman before Christmas, with White House economic advisor Hassett considered the most likely candidate. Market analysts believe this personnel change will further solidify market expectations for interest rate cuts.
Gold prices remained stable on Tuesday, with spot gold unchanged at $4,139.79 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since November 14 during the session. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December continue to rise, with the probability now at 85%, becoming the main factor supporting gold prices.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data further reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut. Retail sales growth slowed in September, falling short of expectations; meanwhile, the producer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from August, indicating moderate inflationary pressures. These figures echoed recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed Governor Milan stating on Tuesday that a deteriorating job market necessitates further interest rate cuts.
Peter Grant, Vice President of Zaner Metals, noted, "The Fed's recent dovish comments have rekindled hopes for a December rate cut, and the latest data has not changed that expectation." A low-interest-rate environment is generally favorable for gold because the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets is reduced.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell slightly by 0.3% to $51.21 per ounce; platinum rose 0.2% to $1,546.42; and palladium rose slightly by 0.1% to $1,397.49.
Oil prices extended their decline on Tuesday, closing down more than 1%, mainly due to Ukraine's hints that it might accept a peace agreement framework proposed by the United States, raising concerns about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the return of Russian oil supplies to the market.
Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to settle at $62.48 a barrel, while WTI crude futures fell 1.5% to settle at $57.95 a barrel. Both benchmark crudes hit their lowest levels since October 22 during the session.
Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary, Umerov, revealed that President Zelenskyy may visit the United States in the coming days to finalize an agreement to end the war with President Trump. However, Russia continues to emphasize that it will not allow any agreement to deviate from its goals. Coupled with Tuesday's Russian missile attack on Kyiv, which caused casualties and infrastructure damage, these factors have made the market cautious about whether a final agreement can be reached.
Analysts point out that if a peace agreement is reached, the West may lift sanctions on Russian energy trade, which could further exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance in a market already facing concerns about oversupply. Deutsche Bank predicts that the global crude oil market will experience a supply glut of at least 2 million barrels per day in 2026, and a clear path to rebalancing is unlikely in the short term.
The market is closely watching official inventory data to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for more clues about supply and demand fundamentals.
The dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday, with the dollar index falling 0.5% to 99.746, as the latest economic data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Meanwhile, the yen rose to 155.99 against the dollar, as markets remained highly vigilant about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities.
The US economic data released that day presented a complex picture: September retail sales rose 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4%, indicating weak consumer demand; while the producer price index rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. More notably, the November consumer confidence index plummeted to 88.7, far below market expectations. These data, coupled with recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, prompted a sharp rise in market expectations for a December rate cut from 50% a week earlier to 83%.
Juan Perez, head of trading at Monex USA, believes that "today's decline in the dollar is entirely justified, as data shows signs of stagflation at the end of the third quarter, characterized by both weak demand and sticky price pressures."
Other major currencies also saw significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. The euro rose 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1576, while the pound climbed 0.8% to $1.3203. The New Zealand dollar edged up 0.2% to $0.5623, with the market widely expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to announce an interest rate cut on Wednesday.
The yen's exchange rate became the focus of the market, with the dollar falling 0.6% against the yen. Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange analyst at ING, pointed out that low liquidity during the Thanksgiving holiday could create favorable conditions for the Bank of Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Since October, the yen has depreciated by nearly 10 yen against the dollar, further increasing the risk of intervention.
Trump: Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is "very close" to being reached.
On March 25, local time, US President Trump stated that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was "very close to being reached," but European leaders expressed skepticism. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated on the same day that some delicate details still needed to be resolved in the peace agreement proposed by the US to end the Ukraine crisis, but these issues were not insurmountable. Further consultations between Ukraine, Russia, and the US would be necessary. Earlier on the 25th, a US official stated that Ukraine had agreed in principle to the US-proposed peace agreement, but some terms still needed discussion. On the same day, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the delegations of Ukraine and the US had reached a consensus on the core terms of the peace agreement discussed recently in Geneva. (CCTV News)
White House: Issues still need to be addressed in the peace agreement
According to CCTV News, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated on the 25th that some delicate details still need to be resolved in the peace agreement proposed by the United States to end the Ukraine crisis, but these issues are not insurmountable. Further consultations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will be necessary. According to CNN and other media reports on the 25th, a US official stated that Ukraine has agreed in principle to the peace agreement proposed by the United States, but some clauses still need to be discussed. On the same day, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the delegations of Ukraine and the United States had reached a consensus on the core terms of the peace agreement discussed recently in Geneva.
White House National Economic Council Director Hassett is considered the frontrunner in the selection process for the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
According to sources familiar with the matter, as the selection process for the next Federal Reserve chairman enters its final weeks, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is considered the frontrunner by President Donald Trump's advisors and allies. Sources, who requested anonymity, said that if Hassett is selected, Trump will be able to place a close, trusted ally in an independent central bank. Some sources indicated that Hassett is seen as someone who can bring the president's interest rate-cutting philosophy to the Fed—a position Trump has long sought to control. However, the sources also noted that Trump is known for making surprising personnel and policy decisions, so nominations are not final until they are made public. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt stated, "No one can predict President Trump's decisions before they are made. Stay tuned!"
Zelensky is scheduled to meet with Trump on the 27th to reach a peace agreement.
On March 25 local time, Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Yermak stated that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was prepared to meet with US President Trump two days later (March 27) to reach a peace agreement. President Zelenskyy had previously stated in a video address on March 24 that he would consult with President Trump on the contents of a new peace plan. However, the White House stated on March 24 that the US and Ukrainian presidents currently had no plans to meet. On March 25, US and Ukrainian officials stated that Ukraine had agreed in principle to the peace agreement proposed by the US, but some terms still needed to be discussed. (CCTV News)
US government cuts to homelessness funding spark lawsuits in multiple states
On November 25, local time, several U.S. states filed lawsuits demanding the Trump administration restore more than $3 billion in funding intended for providing permanent housing and other services to the homeless. It is understood that most of the states that filed the lawsuits are led by Democrats, and their grounds for the lawsuits include allegations that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) announcement this month of adjustments to its Continuing Care program violated federal law. The lawsuits aim to block funding cuts and the new conditions imposed by the HUD on grants.
Competition from "dual-source supply" promotes soybean deep processing and drives industrial chain upgrading.
With a large influx of domestically produced soybeans onto the market, coupled with a steady stream of imported soybeans arriving at ports, downstream processing enterprises in my country's soybean industry chain are facing a differentiated competitive landscape under this "dual-source supply" situation. Along with my country's consumption upgrade, an industrial upgrade focusing on unlocking the value of domestically produced soybeans is underway. (CCTV News)
Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun: We must deploy and implement a number of major national science and technology tasks, promote the entire chain of key technologies in key areas, and achieve decisive breakthroughs.
Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun stated in an interview that it is necessary to strengthen the supply of high-quality science and technology to guide the construction of a modern industrial system. Adhering to the "four orientations" (facing the world, facing the future, facing the world ...
Key Focus Today
British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announced the budget plan, and Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr held a press conference on monetary policy.
stock market
U.S. stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 660 points, primarily driven by rising market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Although relatively weak performance in technology stocks limited the Nasdaq's gains, all three major indexes still closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.43% to close at 47,112.45 points; the S&P 500 gained 0.91% to close at 6,765.89 points; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.67% to close at 23,025.59 points.
The latest economic data provides strong support for an interest rate cut. September retail sales data showed weak consumption, the producer price report indicated continued cooling inflation, and the deterioration in the consumer confidence index exceeded expectations. Influenced by these factors, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has surged from 50.1% a week ago to 84.7%.
In terms of individual stocks, the technology sector showed divergence. Nvidia, a leading AI company, fell 2.6%, while Alphabet rose 1.5% due to reports of negotiations with Meta regarding AI chip supply, with Meta itself surging 3.8%. The retail sector performed particularly well, with Kohl's soaring 42.5% and Abercrombie & Fitch jumping 37.5%, both companies raising their annual earnings forecasts.
A new development has emerged on the policy front: US Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that Trump is likely to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chairman before Christmas, with White House economic advisor Hassett considered the most likely candidate. Market analysts believe this personnel change will further solidify market expectations for interest rate cuts.
Gold Market
Gold prices remained stable on Tuesday, with spot gold unchanged at $4,139.79 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since November 14 during the session. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December continue to rise, with the probability now at 85%, becoming the main factor supporting gold prices.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data further reinforced expectations of an interest rate cut. Retail sales growth slowed in September, falling short of expectations; meanwhile, the producer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from August, indicating moderate inflationary pressures. These figures echoed recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed Governor Milan stating on Tuesday that a deteriorating job market necessitates further interest rate cuts.
Peter Grant, Vice President of Zaner Metals, noted, "The Fed's recent dovish comments have rekindled hopes for a December rate cut, and the latest data has not changed that expectation." A low-interest-rate environment is generally favorable for gold because the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets is reduced.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell slightly by 0.3% to $51.21 per ounce; platinum rose 0.2% to $1,546.42; and palladium rose slightly by 0.1% to $1,397.49.
oil market
Oil prices extended their decline on Tuesday, closing down more than 1%, mainly due to Ukraine's hints that it might accept a peace agreement framework proposed by the United States, raising concerns about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the return of Russian oil supplies to the market.
Brent crude futures fell 1.4% to settle at $62.48 a barrel, while WTI crude futures fell 1.5% to settle at $57.95 a barrel. Both benchmark crudes hit their lowest levels since October 22 during the session.
Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary, Umerov, revealed that President Zelenskyy may visit the United States in the coming days to finalize an agreement to end the war with President Trump. However, Russia continues to emphasize that it will not allow any agreement to deviate from its goals. Coupled with Tuesday's Russian missile attack on Kyiv, which caused casualties and infrastructure damage, these factors have made the market cautious about whether a final agreement can be reached.
Analysts point out that if a peace agreement is reached, the West may lift sanctions on Russian energy trade, which could further exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance in a market already facing concerns about oversupply. Deutsche Bank predicts that the global crude oil market will experience a supply glut of at least 2 million barrels per day in 2026, and a clear path to rebalancing is unlikely in the short term.
The market is closely watching official inventory data to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for more clues about supply and demand fundamentals.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar weakened across the board on Tuesday, with the dollar index falling 0.5% to 99.746, as the latest economic data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. Meanwhile, the yen rose to 155.99 against the dollar, as markets remained highly vigilant about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities.
The US economic data released that day presented a complex picture: September retail sales rose 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4%, indicating weak consumer demand; while the producer price index rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. More notably, the November consumer confidence index plummeted to 88.7, far below market expectations. These data, coupled with recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, prompted a sharp rise in market expectations for a December rate cut from 50% a week earlier to 83%.
Juan Perez, head of trading at Monex USA, believes that "today's decline in the dollar is entirely justified, as data shows signs of stagflation at the end of the third quarter, characterized by both weak demand and sticky price pressures."
Other major currencies also saw significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. The euro rose 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1576, while the pound climbed 0.8% to $1.3203. The New Zealand dollar edged up 0.2% to $0.5623, with the market widely expecting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to announce an interest rate cut on Wednesday.
The yen's exchange rate became the focus of the market, with the dollar falling 0.6% against the yen. Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange analyst at ING, pointed out that low liquidity during the Thanksgiving holiday could create favorable conditions for the Bank of Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market. Since October, the yen has depreciated by nearly 10 yen against the dollar, further increasing the risk of intervention.
International News
Trump: Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is "very close" to being reached.
On March 25, local time, US President Trump stated that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was "very close to being reached," but European leaders expressed skepticism. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated on the same day that some delicate details still needed to be resolved in the peace agreement proposed by the US to end the Ukraine crisis, but these issues were not insurmountable. Further consultations between Ukraine, Russia, and the US would be necessary. Earlier on the 25th, a US official stated that Ukraine had agreed in principle to the US-proposed peace agreement, but some terms still needed discussion. On the same day, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the delegations of Ukraine and the US had reached a consensus on the core terms of the peace agreement discussed recently in Geneva. (CCTV News)
White House: Issues still need to be addressed in the peace agreement
According to CCTV News, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated on the 25th that some delicate details still need to be resolved in the peace agreement proposed by the United States to end the Ukraine crisis, but these issues are not insurmountable. Further consultations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will be necessary. According to CNN and other media reports on the 25th, a US official stated that Ukraine has agreed in principle to the peace agreement proposed by the United States, but some clauses still need to be discussed. On the same day, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the delegations of Ukraine and the United States had reached a consensus on the core terms of the peace agreement discussed recently in Geneva.
White House National Economic Council Director Hassett is considered the frontrunner in the selection process for the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
According to sources familiar with the matter, as the selection process for the next Federal Reserve chairman enters its final weeks, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is considered the frontrunner by President Donald Trump's advisors and allies. Sources, who requested anonymity, said that if Hassett is selected, Trump will be able to place a close, trusted ally in an independent central bank. Some sources indicated that Hassett is seen as someone who can bring the president's interest rate-cutting philosophy to the Fed—a position Trump has long sought to control. However, the sources also noted that Trump is known for making surprising personnel and policy decisions, so nominations are not final until they are made public. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt stated, "No one can predict President Trump's decisions before they are made. Stay tuned!"
Zelensky is scheduled to meet with Trump on the 27th to reach a peace agreement.
On March 25 local time, Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Yermak stated that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was prepared to meet with US President Trump two days later (March 27) to reach a peace agreement. President Zelenskyy had previously stated in a video address on March 24 that he would consult with President Trump on the contents of a new peace plan. However, the White House stated on March 24 that the US and Ukrainian presidents currently had no plans to meet. On March 25, US and Ukrainian officials stated that Ukraine had agreed in principle to the peace agreement proposed by the US, but some terms still needed to be discussed. (CCTV News)
US government cuts to homelessness funding spark lawsuits in multiple states
On November 25, local time, several U.S. states filed lawsuits demanding the Trump administration restore more than $3 billion in funding intended for providing permanent housing and other services to the homeless. It is understood that most of the states that filed the lawsuits are led by Democrats, and their grounds for the lawsuits include allegations that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) announcement this month of adjustments to its Continuing Care program violated federal law. The lawsuits aim to block funding cuts and the new conditions imposed by the HUD on grants.
Domestic News
Competition from "dual-source supply" promotes soybean deep processing and drives industrial chain upgrading.
With a large influx of domestically produced soybeans onto the market, coupled with a steady stream of imported soybeans arriving at ports, downstream processing enterprises in my country's soybean industry chain are facing a differentiated competitive landscape under this "dual-source supply" situation. Along with my country's consumption upgrade, an industrial upgrade focusing on unlocking the value of domestically produced soybeans is underway. (CCTV News)
Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun: We must deploy and implement a number of major national science and technology tasks, promote the entire chain of key technologies in key areas, and achieve decisive breakthroughs.
Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun stated in an interview that it is necessary to strengthen the supply of high-quality science and technology to guide the construction of a modern industrial system. Adhering to the "four orientations" (facing the world, facing the future, facing the world ...
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
