Precious Metals: Overnight news was mixed, resulting in volatile trading for precious metals. Although the US September PPI rose year-on-year, the core PPI's upward momentum slowed. Coupled with slower-than-expected September retail sales data, expectations for a Fed rate cut in December have risen again. However, geopolitical tensions are easing, with Trump stating that only a few differences remain in the peace plan, and mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict progressing, slightly reducing market demand for safe-haven assets. Overall, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December continues to rise, but geopolitical risks have decreased. In the short term, precious metals are expected to trade within a range, while in the long term, they will continue to be supported by long-term factors such as "de-dollarization," remaining in a long-term bull market. For trading, long-term long positions can be held. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2602 is 910-960 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver 2602 is 11800-12400 yuan/kilogram.


Stock Index Futures: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.77%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.43%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.95%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.25%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.31%. The total turnover of the two markets was 1,812.147 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 84.374 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Level 1 industries, the best performing industries were: Communications (3.54%), Media (2.85%), and Non-ferrous Metals (2.42%). The worst performing industries were: Defense and Military Industry (-0.32%), Transportation (-0.11%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (0.01%). Regarding basis, the basis of major stock index futures all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts were -1.60% and -3.40% respectively, while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts were -10.30% and -13.40% respectively. For hedging, short positions could consider quarterly contracts. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher and then trended upwards, with trading volume slightly higher than the previous trading day. Yesterday, the communications, media, and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains; while defense, transportation, and oil and petrochemical sectors led the declines. Among the first-level sectors, the technology sector continued to lead the gains yesterday, with communications and media ranking among the top gainers. Meanwhile, the entire first-level sector index showed a broad-based rise, with only two of the 31 first-level sectors experiencing slight declines. The recent rebound in investment enthusiasm for the technology sector may indicate that the previous rotation of funds within the market has largely been completed, and market risk appetite is expected to rise again. At the index level, yesterday's performance of small and mid-cap growth stocks slightly outperformed that of large-cap stocks, indicating a significant stabilization in market sentiment. Looking ahead, the support from monetary liquidity, economic fundamentals, and policy remains solid, and the long-term index is still expected to rise. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IF and IM.

Treasury Bond Futures: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures fell. In terms of unilateral terms, based on closing prices, the 30-year main contract fell 0.33%, the 10-year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5-year main contract remained unchanged, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.01%. Regarding cross-product spreads, 4TST, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.109 yuan, 0.075 yuan, and 0.125 yuan respectively. Unilateral Strategy: Treasury bond futures diverged, with TL falling again, while shorter-term bonds performed stronger. The central bank injected 100 billion yuan of liquidity through MLF, but this is unlikely to boost the bond market. Recent low volatility in treasury bond futures is primarily due to the policy vacuum, creating a dilemma. The negative correlation between TL and the equity market is weakening, and with the expectation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts failing to materialize, TS also performed poorly. The market lacks a major contradiction, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. Cross-commodity strategy: Compared to TS and TL, TF and T are more resilient; a long T and short TL strategy is recommended. Hedging strategy: The net basis of T has been fluctuating and rebounding from a low level, but the overall level is not high; it is recommended to continue holding a long T basis position.

Industrial Silicon: The market is gradually digesting the impact of the anti-involution effect in organosilicon, and sentiment is stabilizing, with industrial silicon futures trading in a volatile manner. From a fundamental perspective, with the dry season approaching in Southwest China, manufacturers are gradually reducing production, and further reductions are planned. Overall demand is weak, and both polysilicon and organosilicon are showing a tendency to reduce production due to the anti-involution effect. In general, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak recently, but the monthly supply and demand are generally trending towards balance. The market is mainly affected by sentiment fluctuations, and the price volatility of industrial silicon may be limited. In terms of operation, it is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for the SI2601 contract is 8800-9300 yuan/ton.

Ferroalloys: Alloy prices continue to face upward pressure. Supply is slowly declining, with ferrosilicon plants reducing inventory by 8,000 tons and ferromanganese inventory accumulating over 10,000 tons, resulting in relatively ample supply. Steel prices have recently strengthened slightly, with improved market speculation, but the sustainability of this demand improvement remains questionable, and inventory reduction pressure persists for products like plate steel. Steel mill profitability is under pressure, and further production cuts are possible in December. Downstream buyers are primarily purchasing on an as-needed basis, and there is still time for winter stockpiling. On the macro level, attention should be paid to the important meetings in December. Viewpoint: Continue to hold the short position on the January contract.

Shanghai Lead: Overnight, Shanghai lead prices fluctuated weakly. From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the tight supply of primary ore is unlikely to change. According to Shanghai Metals Market statistics, some domestic lead concentrate has already been pre-ordered for the first quarter. TC (treatment charge) decreased week-on-week, and smelters in Yunnan and other regions maintained production cuts. Holders of recycled waste batteries showed a strong willingness to support prices, smelting profits improved slightly, and recycled smelters showed a reasonable willingness to resume production, while holders were willing to sell. On the import side, some overseas crude lead gradually flowed into the market. On the demand side, major manufacturers had good orders this month, but recent high lead prices have reduced purchasing demand. Overall, the improvement in low inventory levels in November is limited, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels.

Shanghai Zinc: Overnight, Shanghai zinc opened higher but closed lower. On the macro front, the US September PPI was relatively strong, coupled with dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Governors, leading to a rise in interest rate cut expectations to over 80%, thus improving macro sentiment. On the fundamental side, domestic TC (treatment charge) remains on a downward trend, with floor prices in some regions dropping to 2100. On the supply side, according to preliminary estimates from SteelHome, the reduction in production in December is expected to be limited, with a month-on-month decrease of approximately 10,000 tons, and supply pressure continues to ease. On the demand side, downstream buyers are mainly purchasing on dips, and yesterday's spot premium remained stable. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to remain strong until the end of the year, with a rebound anticipated as the macroeconomy recovers.

Nickel and Stainless Steel: On the macro front, Trump stated significant progress in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Ukraine also expressed its expectation for a final agreement, easing risk aversion. Meanwhile, US core PPI was lower than expected, strengthening expectations for a December Fed rate cut. In terms of news, Indonesia's FINI indicated that Indonesian nickel smelters face some production shutdown risks, and concerns about supply led to a strong rebound in nickel prices overnight. Currently, the spot market for pure nickel is experiencing moderate trading, and the oversupply situation in the nickel market shows no signs of improvement. Regarding nickel sulfate, cost factors and downstream demand support a relatively strong and volatile price for nickel salts. For nickel pig iron, negative demand feedback continues to suppress prices, but the supply tightening caused by some nickel pig iron producers switching to high-grade nickel matte provides support. The stainless steel market is sluggish, with social inventories accumulating, and prices trending weakly. Operationally, a wait-and-see approach is recommended for nickel and stainless steel. The reference range for SHFE nickel 2601 is 110,000-122,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for SS2601 is 122,000-12,800 yuan/ton.

Rubber: On Tuesday, domestically produced full-latex rubber was priced at 14,750 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai latex closed at 57.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup lump closed at 51.54 baht/kg, down 1.36 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan latex closed at 13.9 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan latex closed at 13.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, including bonded and general trade, was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons, or 3.60%, from the previous period. Bonded warehouse inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. In Qingdao, the bonded warehouse inbound rate for natural rubber increased by 8.20 percentage points, while the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; in general trade warehouses, the inbound rate increased by 1.03 percentage points, while the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points. Viewpoint: Recent real-world contradictions remain limited, corresponding to unilateral market fluctuations. Looking ahead, with the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the world is about to enter the low-production season, which means that the pricing framework for unilateral prices will shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand balance to static pricing based on existing inventory. Demand-side/macroeconomic factors may dominate future unilateral pricing. Considering that domestic demand in China is unlikely to decline significantly in the future, and overseas markets are unlikely to weaken significantly under the interest rate cut cycle, meaning that future global demand is unlikely to decline sharply, then regardless of the current (global) inventory level, the bottom for RU&NR&Sicom may have already appeared.

Soda Ash: Soda ash futures fell slightly on Tuesday, while spot prices remained stable. The commodity market saw mixed performance on Tuesday, with market sentiment generally neutral. From a fundamental perspective, recent soda ash maintenance schedules have increased, with last week's output decreasing by 18,000 tons to 721,000 tons, temporarily easing supply-side pressure. Downstream demand has declined slightly, with the latest soda ash plant inventory decreasing by 29,000 tons to 1,616,000 tons compared to last Thursday, while the latest delivery warehouse inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 653,000 tons. Last week, one float glass production line underwent cold repair, while photovoltaic glass production lines remained unchanged; this week, one float glass production line will undergo cold repair. Recently, the combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, leading to a slight decrease in demand for heavy soda ash, while demand for light soda ash remains temporarily stable, with downstream purchasing activity generally moderate. October soda ash imports slightly decreased to 300 tons, while exports increased to 214,500 tons, indicating an increase in exports. On the macro front, recent domestic real estate sales data showed a slight month-on-month increase, but remained below the level of the same period last year; the impact of international macroeconomic factors was neutral (the US dollar index fell, and concerns about trade frictions eased); domestic policy disruptions weakened. Overall, in the short term, losses in soda ash are increasing, supply is temporarily decreasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate at relatively low levels. Regarding warehouse receipts, soda ash warehouse receipts increased by 1134 to 3652 on Tuesday. Short-term soda ash futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with SA2601 expected to trade between 1160 and 1190 intraday.

Glass: Glass futures rose and then fell on Tuesday, while spot prices remained stable. Short-term glass fundamentals have improved slightly, with supply pressure easing. Last week, glass production decreased slightly compared to the previous week, downstream purchasing activity was moderate, and inventory increased slightly compared to the previous week. The latest glass inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 3.165 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%. One glass production line underwent cold repair last week; one production line will undergo cold repair this week. Recently, daily glass melting capacity has declined, with the latest daily melting capacity in operation at 157,185 tons/day, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.2%. From January to October, the completed floor space of domestic housing decreased by approximately 16.9% year-on-year (the decline widened). Recent real estate sales data showed a slight increase compared to the previous week, but remained below the level of the same period last year. The latest number of deep-processing orders for glass decreased by 0.9 days to 9.9 days compared to the previous week, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%. In the short term, glass supply is slightly decreasing, while demand is dragging down prices, with futures prices expected to fluctuate in the near term. Glass futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Short positions at relatively low levels can be reduced. The intraday reference range for FG2601 is 1000-1030.

Rebar: In terms of the industry, rebar production increased by 79,600 tons to 2,079,600 tons last week, while social inventory decreased by 157,300 tons to 4,000,200 tons, and mill inventory decreased by 71,000 tons to 1,533,200 tons. Apparent demand increased by 144,200 tons compared to the previous week. Rebar demand has improved somewhat, but sustainability is questionable. Conversely, supply is also recovering. Under this situation of both increased supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar remain weak, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative advantage lies in the relatively low valuation, and the overall market is expected to maintain a low-level fluctuation pattern.

Hot-rolled coil: Last week, hot-rolled coil production increased by 23,500 tons, while inventory decreased by 84,100 tons. Apparent demand increased by 108,300 tons to 3,244,200 tons. During the policy lull, the supply and demand situation for hot-rolled coil improved somewhat, and inventory decreased again. However, supply pressure remains unresolved, and the resilience of demand is questionable. Therefore, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and steel prices are expected to remain in a low-level, volatile pattern.

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