Gold and crude oil alert! Putin unveils ceasefire negotiations but hides a killer move: Black Sea oil tankers become the focus?
2025-12-03 10:41:12
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy Vitkov and his son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin on Tuesday (December 2) to discuss possible political solutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Prior to the meeting, Putin warned Europe that it would be quickly defeated if it went to war with Russia, and called the European-proposed alternatives for peace in Ukraine "completely unacceptable." Putin also accused Europe of trying to obstruct the peace process.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but his efforts have so far been unsuccessful, including the summit with Putin in Alaska in August and multiple talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
The leaked draft of 28 U.S. peace proposals last week has shocked Ukrainian and European officials, who say the proposals cater to key Russian demands, including NATO, Russian control of one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, and limiting the size of the Ukrainian army.
Subsequently, European countries proposed alternative solutions, and the United States and Ukraine stated in Geneva talks that they had developed a "newer and more refined peace framework".
During the meeting, Putin said to Vitkov and Kushner, "It's a pleasure to meet you."
Vitkov responded, "It's a wonderful city," and mentioned earlier that he had strolled in Red Square with Kushner and Putin's special envoy Dmitriev.
Dmitriev and Putin's aide Ushakov also attended the Kremlin talks, with interpreters present.
Prior to the meeting, Putin accused Europe of trying to undermine Trump's peace efforts and proposing solutions that Russia could not accept.
Putin said, "They are on the side of war. We can clearly see that these modifications have only one purpose: to completely block the peace process and make demands that Russia absolutely cannot accept."
Putin warned that if Europe suddenly goes to war with Russia, "the war will end quickly, and Russia will have no adversary to negotiate with."
Putin also threatened to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea if Ukrainian drones continued to attack Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers in the Black Sea. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibikha stated that Putin's remarks showed he was not yet prepared to end the conflict.
According to maps of Ukraine, Russian troops currently control over 19% of Ukraine's territory, or 115,600 square kilometers (45,000 square miles), an increase of only one percentage point from two years ago, although their advance in 2025 is the fastest since 2022.
However, in the past four years, Russia and Ukraine have yet to emerge as the clear winners, with Ukraine gaining support from Europe and the United States.
Zelenskyy stated in Dublin that everything depends on the talks in Moscow. He said, "There will be no easy solution... What's important is fairness and transparency; there can be no deals made behind Ukraine's back."
Putin stated that the current discussions are not about a draft agreement, but rather a set of proposals that "could form the basis of a future agreement." He said he is willing to negotiate, but if Ukraine refuses to reach an agreement, the Russian military will advance further.
A Russian source said the Trump administration’s mediation was the best chance to end the conflict since negotiations with Kyiv broke down after the Russian invasion in February 2022.
Since the US draft was revealed, European countries have been trying to strengthen their position on the Ukraine issue to prevent a punitive peace agreement that could pave the way for US capital to return to Russia's energy and rare earth sectors and allow Moscow to rejoin the G8.
Russia's core demands include: Ukraine will never join NATO, the size of the Ukrainian army will be limited, Russia will control the entire Donbas region, Russia will recognize its control over Crimea, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and the protection of Russian-speaking communities within Ukraine.
Ukraine called these demands tantamount to surrender, risking eventual conquest by Russia. Washington, in turn, offered Kyiv a 10-year security guarantee.
Ukraine and European countries view the conflict as an expansion of Moscow's influence and have warned that if Russia wins, it will attack NATO member states in the future. Zelensky stated that Russia must not be allowed to gain any benefit from instigating the conflict.
Russian Presidential Foreign Policy Aide Ushakov said on Wednesday that Russia and the United States have failed to reach a compromise on peace in Ukraine, and that peace has neither come any closer nor become more distant.
He pointed out that the two sides failed to reach a compromise on the most intractable issue—the territorial dispute.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. Special Envoy Utkov and U.S. President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin. Utkov stated that the discussions were constructive but acknowledged that differences remained on the issue of Ukraine.
In the short term, any optimistic headlines for the negotiations could trigger a technical pullback in gold prices. However, given the deep disagreements and confrontational rhetoric revealed in the text, the market will soon realize that reaching a comprehensive agreement is extremely difficult. Spot gold rose approximately 0.49% in Asian trading on Wednesday, trading around $4225 per ounce.
Gold's downside is expected to be limited, and any declines driven by optimism surrounding negotiations could be seen as opportunities for long-term allocation. Ultimately, gold will continue to oscillate between two major themes: "geopolitical safe-haven demand" and "global monetary policy."
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
On Wednesday in Asian trading, US crude oil fell about 0.26%, trading around $59.50 per barrel. The oil market may react negatively to the "peace prospect," but this reaction is likely to be short-lived and limited. This is because:
The prospects for negotiations are fraught with uncertainty, and Putin's remarks suggest that the conflict may escalate rather than de-escalate.
The lifting of substantial sanctions against Russia will be a lengthy process.
Most importantly, Putin's threat to Black Sea shipping is an imminent supply risk that could completely offset market illusions about the lifting of sanctions in the distant future.
(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)
In summary , this diplomatic engagement is far from reshaping the geopolitical landscape. For the market, it's more like a stress test, assessing how much "peace expectation" is priced into gold and oil prices. Confrontational rhetoric and fundamental disagreements indicate that geopolitical risks are far from eliminated . Therefore, any resulting asset price declines are likely to be limited in both duration and scope, especially for crude oil, where any price correction in the current environment is likely to be quickly met with buying support from real supply risks . Traders should be wary of market volatility triggered by headline news, but should pay more attention to changes in substantive supply and demand variables such as Black Sea shipping safety and sanctions policies.
At 10:40 Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $4225.90 per ounce.
Prior to the meeting, Putin warned Europe that it would be quickly defeated if it went to war with Russia, and called the European-proposed alternatives for peace in Ukraine "completely unacceptable." Putin also accused Europe of trying to obstruct the peace process.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but his efforts have so far been unsuccessful, including the summit with Putin in Alaska in August and multiple talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
The leaked draft of 28 U.S. peace proposals last week has shocked Ukrainian and European officials, who say the proposals cater to key Russian demands, including NATO, Russian control of one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, and limiting the size of the Ukrainian army.
Subsequently, European countries proposed alternative solutions, and the United States and Ukraine stated in Geneva talks that they had developed a "newer and more refined peace framework".
During the meeting, Putin said to Vitkov and Kushner, "It's a pleasure to meet you."
Vitkov responded, "It's a wonderful city," and mentioned earlier that he had strolled in Red Square with Kushner and Putin's special envoy Dmitriev.
Dmitriev and Putin's aide Ushakov also attended the Kremlin talks, with interpreters present.
Putin accused Europe of trying to obstruct peace.
Prior to the meeting, Putin accused Europe of trying to undermine Trump's peace efforts and proposing solutions that Russia could not accept.
Putin said, "They are on the side of war. We can clearly see that these modifications have only one purpose: to completely block the peace process and make demands that Russia absolutely cannot accept."
Putin warned that if Europe suddenly goes to war with Russia, "the war will end quickly, and Russia will have no adversary to negotiate with."
Putin also threatened to cut off Ukraine's access to the sea if Ukrainian drones continued to attack Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers in the Black Sea. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibikha stated that Putin's remarks showed he was not yet prepared to end the conflict.
According to maps of Ukraine, Russian troops currently control over 19% of Ukraine's territory, or 115,600 square kilometers (45,000 square miles), an increase of only one percentage point from two years ago, although their advance in 2025 is the fastest since 2022.
However, in the past four years, Russia and Ukraine have yet to emerge as the clear winners, with Ukraine gaining support from Europe and the United States.
Zelenskyy stated in Dublin that everything depends on the talks in Moscow. He said, "There will be no easy solution... What's important is fairness and transparency; there can be no deals made behind Ukraine's back."
Putin believes the US proposal could form the basis for a future agreement.
Putin stated that the current discussions are not about a draft agreement, but rather a set of proposals that "could form the basis of a future agreement." He said he is willing to negotiate, but if Ukraine refuses to reach an agreement, the Russian military will advance further.
A Russian source said the Trump administration’s mediation was the best chance to end the conflict since negotiations with Kyiv broke down after the Russian invasion in February 2022.
Since the US draft was revealed, European countries have been trying to strengthen their position on the Ukraine issue to prevent a punitive peace agreement that could pave the way for US capital to return to Russia's energy and rare earth sectors and allow Moscow to rejoin the G8.
Russia's core demands include: Ukraine will never join NATO, the size of the Ukrainian army will be limited, Russia will control the entire Donbas region, Russia will recognize its control over Crimea, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and the protection of Russian-speaking communities within Ukraine.
Ukraine called these demands tantamount to surrender, risking eventual conquest by Russia. Washington, in turn, offered Kyiv a 10-year security guarantee.
Ukraine and European countries view the conflict as an expansion of Moscow's influence and have warned that if Russia wins, it will attack NATO member states in the future. Zelensky stated that Russia must not be allowed to gain any benefit from instigating the conflict.
Russia and the United States have not reached a compromise on the Ukraine issue; the Kremlin says the situation has made no progress and has not worsened.
Russian Presidential Foreign Policy Aide Ushakov said on Wednesday that Russia and the United States have failed to reach a compromise on peace in Ukraine, and that peace has neither come any closer nor become more distant.
He pointed out that the two sides failed to reach a compromise on the most intractable issue—the territorial dispute.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. Special Envoy Utkov and U.S. President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin. Utkov stated that the discussions were constructive but acknowledged that differences remained on the issue of Ukraine.
Impact on gold: Safe-haven demand faces a two-way pull.
In the short term, any optimistic headlines for the negotiations could trigger a technical pullback in gold prices. However, given the deep disagreements and confrontational rhetoric revealed in the text, the market will soon realize that reaching a comprehensive agreement is extremely difficult. Spot gold rose approximately 0.49% in Asian trading on Wednesday, trading around $4225 per ounce.
Gold's downside is expected to be limited, and any declines driven by optimism surrounding negotiations could be seen as opportunities for long-term allocation. Ultimately, gold will continue to oscillate between two major themes: "geopolitical safe-haven demand" and "global monetary policy."
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
Impact on crude oil: Supply risk premium faces test, but bottom is solid.
On Wednesday in Asian trading, US crude oil fell about 0.26%, trading around $59.50 per barrel. The oil market may react negatively to the "peace prospect," but this reaction is likely to be short-lived and limited. This is because:
The prospects for negotiations are fraught with uncertainty, and Putin's remarks suggest that the conflict may escalate rather than de-escalate.
The lifting of substantial sanctions against Russia will be a lengthy process.
Most importantly, Putin's threat to Black Sea shipping is an imminent supply risk that could completely offset market illusions about the lifting of sanctions in the distant future.
(US crude oil daily chart, source: FX678)
In summary , this diplomatic engagement is far from reshaping the geopolitical landscape. For the market, it's more like a stress test, assessing how much "peace expectation" is priced into gold and oil prices. Confrontational rhetoric and fundamental disagreements indicate that geopolitical risks are far from eliminated . Therefore, any resulting asset price declines are likely to be limited in both duration and scope, especially for crude oil, where any price correction in the current environment is likely to be quickly met with buying support from real supply risks . Traders should be wary of market volatility triggered by headline news, but should pay more attention to changes in substantive supply and demand variables such as Black Sea shipping safety and sanctions policies.
At 10:40 Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $4225.90 per ounce.
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