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2025-12-12 17:54:09
[Interest Rate Spread Anomalies: A Potential Bargain Opportunity in Portuguese Bonds?] ⑴ Institutional analysis shows that after adjusting for the direction of the interest rate spread between the two countries, the 5-year Portuguese bond yield curve appears "cheaper" compared to Spanish bonds of the same maturity. ⑵ Specifically, based on a three-month constant yield to maturity regression model, the 5-year Portuguese bond is valued approximately 2.0 basis points lower than the beta-adjusted 5-year Spanish bond. ⑶ This deviation is statistically significant, equivalent to 2.8 standard deviations, typically indicating a temporary, exploitable relative value opportunity in market pricing.
