Super Week is Coming: Non-Farm Payroll Data and Central Bank Decisions – Key Highlights for Next Week
2025-12-12 18:17:11
Next week (December 15-20), the global market will see a flurry of US non-farm payroll data releases and policy decisions from various countries.
Affected by the earlier US government shutdown, the US released core economic data for October and November in a concentrated manner. This, coupled with the interest rate decisions of the central banks of the UK, Europe, and Japan, and the release of economic fundamentals data from China, the US, Europe, Japan, and other countries, means that every event—from consumption and industry to inflation and employment, from monetary policy to industry summits—could trigger significant asset price volatility. Investors need to focus on key variables, prepare their portfolios in advance, and prepare for potential market changes.
China released its November retail sales growth and industrial output value of enterprises above a designated size, and the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy.
Japan then released a series of fourth-quarter data for large corporations, which form the basis of the Japanese economy.
In the evening, the New York Federal Reserve will release its manufacturing index, which has a certain leading effect on the national PMI; Canada will release its CPI and manufacturing sales and orders data.
In the evening, Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member and president of the New York Fed, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook. His speech can be compared with the speech given by the new FOMC voting members last Friday for comprehensive analysis.
The most crucial juncture this week is the key window for deciding whether to hold onto or cash out your assets.
The U.S. Department of Labor will release supplementary non-farm payroll data for October and November, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation rate.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau released supplementary U.S. retail sales data for October (commonly known as "the terror data"), and both sets of data will have a significant impact on the dollar index and U.S. stocks.
In addition, the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone will release their November manufacturing PMIs in quick succession, which will directly affect the valuation center of European and American stocks.
The US routinely releases API and EIA crude oil inventory changes; Japan releases its import and export trade balance; the UK releases retail sales figures, while the UK and Eurozone release their November CPI; Germany releases its December IFO Business Climate Index (based on businesses' combined expectations for the current situation and the next six months).
Later in the evening, FOMC permanent voting member Williams and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will deliver speeches.
The Xiaomi Ecosystem Partner Conference and the China Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation and Development Conference will also be held on the same day.
The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, with the market expecting a 25 basis point cut to 3.75%. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will announce the Eurozone's interest rate decision, with the market expecting the ECB to maintain its three benchmark interest rates unchanged (2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%).
The US will then release supplementary CPI data for October and November, as well as initial and continuing jobless claims this week. The performance of these data will influence expectations for a Fed rate cut in January next year.
The Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, with the market expecting the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy. Japan will also release its CPI figures on the same day.
New Zealand then released its import and export trade balance.
The focus this evening will be on US data: the release of important October PCE price index (the Fed's most valued inflation indicator), October personal spending growth, and the revised US Q3 GDP growth rate, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; and the Eurozone's December Consumer Sentiment Index.
The United States will also release data on net foreign purchases of long-term securities in October (a key indicator that measures foreign investors’ demand for long-term financial assets in the United States, including various bonds and stocks, with a 45-day lag).
In addition, Moore's Threads, a newly listed domestic GPU company, will release new products and architectures at its MUSA Developer Conference.
Due to the rollover, the NYMEX January crude oil futures contract will complete its final trading session on the exchange at 3:30 AM on December 20th, and its final trading session on the electronic trading platform at 6:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's rollover announcements to manage your risk.
In addition, some trading platforms typically have US crude oil contracts expiring one day earlier than the official NYMEX contract, so extra caution is advised.
In addition to core economic data and central bank decisions, investors should also be wary of four potential risks:
First, the non-farm payroll data and retail sales figures fell short of expectations, which may have caused market concerns about the US economy, thus benefiting gold and weakening the US dollar.
Second, major central bank decisions or officials' speeches release unexpected policy shift signals, rapidly correcting market pricing.
Third, escalating international geopolitical or trade frictions could dampen sentiment towards global risk assets.
Fourth, during the rollover period of crude oil contracts, tightening liquidity may lead to short-term price fluctuations, requiring strict control of trading risks.
Affected by the earlier US government shutdown, the US released core economic data for October and November in a concentrated manner. This, coupled with the interest rate decisions of the central banks of the UK, Europe, and Japan, and the release of economic fundamentals data from China, the US, Europe, Japan, and other countries, means that every event—from consumption and industry to inflation and employment, from monetary policy to industry summits—could trigger significant asset price volatility. Investors need to focus on key variables, prepare their portfolios in advance, and prepare for potential market changes.
Monday (December 15): Chinese economic data kicks off the day, while economic fundamentals from multiple countries are released simultaneously.
China released its November retail sales growth and industrial output value of enterprises above a designated size, and the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy.
Japan then released a series of fourth-quarter data for large corporations, which form the basis of the Japanese economy.
In the evening, the New York Federal Reserve will release its manufacturing index, which has a certain leading effect on the national PMI; Canada will release its CPI and manufacturing sales and orders data.
In the evening, Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member and president of the New York Fed, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook. His speech can be compared with the speech given by the new FOMC voting members last Friday for comprehensive analysis.
Tuesday (December 16): Super Non-Farm Payrolls Day, the US releases two months of supplementary non-farm payroll data + retail sales.
The most crucial juncture this week is the key window for deciding whether to hold onto or cash out your assets.
The U.S. Department of Labor will release supplementary non-farm payroll data for October and November, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, wage growth, and labor force participation rate.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau released supplementary U.S. retail sales data for October (commonly known as "the terror data"), and both sets of data will have a significant impact on the dollar index and U.S. stocks.
In addition, the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone will release their November manufacturing PMIs in quick succession, which will directly affect the valuation center of European and American stocks.
Wednesday (December 17): Inflation and economic data released simultaneously, industry summit adds variables.
The US routinely releases API and EIA crude oil inventory changes; Japan releases its import and export trade balance; the UK releases retail sales figures, while the UK and Eurozone release their November CPI; Germany releases its December IFO Business Climate Index (based on businesses' combined expectations for the current situation and the next six months).
Later in the evening, FOMC permanent voting member Williams and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will deliver speeches.
The Xiaomi Ecosystem Partner Conference and the China Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation and Development Conference will also be held on the same day.
Thursday (December 18): Three major central bank policy decisions follow, with US inflation data filling the gap.
The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, with the market expecting a 25 basis point cut to 3.75%. Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will announce the Eurozone's interest rate decision, with the market expecting the ECB to maintain its three benchmark interest rates unchanged (2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%).
The US will then release supplementary CPI data for October and November, as well as initial and continuing jobless claims this week. The performance of these data will influence expectations for a Fed rate cut in January next year.
Friday (December 19): Bank of Japan policy decision concludes the week, US core data releases close out.
The Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, with the market expecting the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy. Japan will also release its CPI figures on the same day.
New Zealand then released its import and export trade balance.
The focus this evening will be on US data: the release of important October PCE price index (the Fed's most valued inflation indicator), October personal spending growth, and the revised US Q3 GDP growth rate, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; and the Eurozone's December Consumer Sentiment Index.
The United States will also release data on net foreign purchases of long-term securities in October (a key indicator that measures foreign investors’ demand for long-term financial assets in the United States, including various bonds and stocks, with a 45-day lag).
In addition, Moore's Threads, a newly listed domestic GPU company, will release new products and architectures at its MUSA Developer Conference.
Saturday (December 20): Crude Oil Contract Rollover Risk Warning
Due to the rollover, the NYMEX January crude oil futures contract will complete its final trading session on the exchange at 3:30 AM on December 20th, and its final trading session on the electronic trading platform at 6:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's rollover announcements to manage your risk.
In addition, some trading platforms typically have US crude oil contracts expiring one day earlier than the official NYMEX contract, so extra caution is advised.
Risk warning:
In addition to core economic data and central bank decisions, investors should also be wary of four potential risks:
First, the non-farm payroll data and retail sales figures fell short of expectations, which may have caused market concerns about the US economy, thus benefiting gold and weakening the US dollar.
Second, major central bank decisions or officials' speeches release unexpected policy shift signals, rapidly correcting market pricing.
Third, escalating international geopolitical or trade frictions could dampen sentiment towards global risk assets.
Fourth, during the rollover period of crude oil contracts, tightening liquidity may lead to short-term price fluctuations, requiring strict control of trading risks.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
