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2025-12-12 20:41:44
[Undercurrents Flow Amidst Market Quiet: Global Bond "Bear Steepening" Trading Spreads Quietly] ⑴ US Treasuries weakened further overnight in extremely thin trading, with the yield curve steepening. Trading volume in 10-year Treasury futures was limited, and prices fluctuated narrowly within a certain range. ⑵ UK government bonds became the market focus. Following the release of weak GDP data, the yield curve also steepened, increasing market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut next week. Specifically, the 2-year gilt yield fell by 1.5 basis points, while the 10-year yield rose by 1 basis point. ⑶ German government bonds also weakened in tandem, with their futures prices falling by approximately 12 minimum price increments from the settlement price. As the European market missed the opportunity for yield compensation before the issuance of 30-year bonds, the spread between US and German 10-year bond yields has widened by 4 basis points since the European close on Thursday. (4) The current market exhibits typical year-end characteristics: declining liquidity, but the trends of multiple asset classes (steepening bond yield curve, soaring gold, and diverging stock markets) collectively point to expectations of slowing economic growth and bets on a shift in monetary policy.
