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2025-12-14 20:12:22
[Beware of the Approaching Year-End Liquidity Shortage: A Market Amplifier for Sudden Violence] ⑴ On Sunday, a shooting at a Jewish holiday event in Bondi Beach, Sydney, left 10 people dead and about 12 injured. The Israeli president called it a "despicable terrorist attack," immediately drawing global attention. ⑵ On the same day, German authorities announced the arrest of five men on Friday at the German-Austrian border, suspected of planning an attack at a Christmas market in Bavaria with the intention of causing mass casualties. ⑶ On Saturday, a shooting at Brown University in the United States resulted in the deaths of two students and injuries to nine others. More than 400 law enforcement officers were deployed to the search. The incident occurred during exam season and in a densely populated area. ⑷ Historically, market liquidity typically decreases significantly during the year-end holiday period. Any sudden geopolitical or social security event at this time can amplify risk aversion amplified by sparse trading volume. ⑸ Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold tend to react more sensitively and violently to negative events in a illiquid environment, with price fluctuations potentially exceeding expectations for normal times. (6) Traders should be wary that the end of the year is not only a holiday season but also a period when market structures are often vulnerable. A lack of liquidity can exacerbate short-term price fluctuations triggered by unforeseen events. (7) It is recommended to closely monitor the liquidity injections by major central banks at the end of the year, as well as changes in institutional investors' positions. These factors will affect the market's actual ability to absorb the impact of unforeseen events.
