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[Market Focuses on BOJ and BOJ Policy Paths; Key Data This Week May Dominate Forex Market Direction] ⑴ Regarding the US dollar, it has weakened across the board since last week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected and set a higher threshold for further rate cuts, but Chairman Powell's press conference was considered quite dovish. ⑵ He did not maintain a neutral stance as much as possible and emphasize data dependence; instead, he downplayed inflation risks and emphasized the weakness in the labor market, suggesting that he is more tolerant of rising inflation than of a weakening labor market. ⑶ This week's market focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will be the last full trading week before the year-end holidays. ⑷ Current market pricing indicates that a cumulative rate cut of 57 basis points is expected by the end of 2026. ⑸ Strong US data, especially on the labor market, could trigger a hawkish repricing, thus boosting the dollar. Conversely, weak data could further drag down the dollar as the market pre-emptively bets on rate cuts. (6) Regarding the yen, despite various "leaks" and a more hawkish tone from the Bank of Japan, the yen did not appreciate significantly as expected. This is partly because the market has already fully priced in the high probability of at least two rate hikes by the end of 2026. (7) The yen strengthened today, benefiting from better-than-expected Tankan survey data and some hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's wage growth assessment released this morning also supported its tightening process. (8) The market is currently convinced that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at this week's monetary policy meeting, but expects it not to exceed current pricing—that is, the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise rates by a cumulative 67 basis points by the end of next year.