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2025-12-15 16:32:07
[Gold Prices Approaching Record Highs; Key US Data May Determine Short-Term Direction] ⑴ Gold prices have recently been supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish policy response, but the short-term direction will likely be determined by key US data released this week. ⑵ The recent comments from the Fed Chair at the FOMC press conference were more dovish than expected, providing support for gold prices. ⑶ The Fed downplayed inflation risks and emphasized the weakness in the labor market, suggesting that the authorities are more tolerant of higher inflation than of a weakening labor market. ⑷ This week's market focus is on the US non-farm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index report. Current market pricing indicates an expected 57 basis point rate cut by the Fed by the end of 2026. ⑸ If US data is strong, especially regarding the labor market, the market may see a hawkish repricing and trigger a gold sell-off. ⑹ On the other hand, weak data could further support gold as the market brings forward its rate cut expectations. ⑺ From a macro perspective, under the Fed's dovish policy response, real yields may continue to decline, and gold prices should maintain an upward trend. (8) However, in the short term, a further hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations could put pressure on the market.
