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2025-12-15 17:18:54
[Dollar Hangs by a Thread; Unexpected Non-Farm Payrolls Could Trigger Rate Cut Frenzy] ⑴ Market focus shifts to the US non-farm payroll data to be released at 21:30 (Beijing time) on Tuesday, the results of which will directly impact the dollar's trajectory. ⑵ Institutional surveys predict that non-farm payrolls will increase by 40,000 in November, with the unemployment rate expected to be 4.4%. ⑶ Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase all predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting on January 28. ⑷ Currently, the interest rate futures market shows that traders are pricing in a 50% probability of a rate cut by the Fed before March 18 next year. ⑸ If the final data is weaker than expected, it will strengthen market expectations of a dovish Fed rate cut as early as the first quarter of next year, and the dollar may continue its weakness from last Thursday's drop to a two-month low, continuing to face significant selling pressure.
