Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-12-15 17:32:38
[Gold Prices Hang by a Thread: How Long Can the Dovish Wind Last? Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI Will Determine Fate] ⑴ Recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman, more dovish than expected, have provided key support for gold prices. He downplayed inflation risks and emphasized the weakness in the labor market. ⑵ This statement suggests that the Fed's policy balance may be more inclined to avoid a deterioration in the job market, with a relatively higher tolerance for inflation. ⑶ The current market expectation is that the Fed will cumulatively cut interest rates by 57 basis points by the end of 2026, which forms the macroeconomic basis for the medium-term upward trend of gold. ⑷ However, short-term trends will be directly affected by this week's US non-farm payrolls and consumer price index data. Strong data will trigger a hawkish adjustment in interest rate expectations and put downward pressure on gold prices. ⑸ Conversely, weak data will strengthen market bets on an earlier rate cut, further supporting gold. ⑹ Therefore, although the long-term trend of gold prices may be upward under the Fed's dovish response mechanism, the fluctuations in interest rate expectations brought about by this week's data will be a key stress test determining its short-term direction.
