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2025-12-15 18:05:57
[Eurozone Industrial Output Accelerates Unexpectedly: The Joys and Sorrows of a Resilience Narrative] ⑴ Data released on Monday showed that Eurozone industrial output rose 0.8% month-on-month in October, significantly higher than September's 0.2%, meeting market expectations and providing support for strengthening economic momentum. ⑵ Year-on-year growth also accelerated to 2.0%, exceeding market expectations of 1.9%, reinforcing the view that the region's economy is gaining momentum. ⑶ German industry performed exceptionally well, growing 1.4% month-on-month, effectively offsetting the impact of a 1.0% decline in Italian output and weak growth in France. ⑷ Despite the positive data, growth is far from robust, with overall economic growth only slightly above 1%, close to its potential growth rate, mainly due to continued weakness in exports, the traditional engine of growth, with growth almost entirely contributed by domestic demand. ⑸ Looking ahead, although industrial activity may have bottomed out this year, and high-frequency indicators show that economic activity remains positive at the end of the year, a clear boom is yet to be seen against the backdrop of Trump's tariff rhetoric potentially changing the global trade landscape, with both upside potential and downside risks appearing relatively limited.
