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2025-12-15 18:13:46
[Japanese Business Confidence Remains Strong, Central Bank Raises Further Confidence; Economic Turning Point Imminent?] ⑴ HSBC economists point out that Japan's Tankan survey shows business confidence remains resilient and is likely to remain strong in the future. ⑵ They believe that government stimulus measures will effectively boost private consumption, thereby continuing to support business optimism. ⑶ From a macroeconomic perspective, the survey results suggest that the quarter-on-quarter GDP contraction in September may only be a temporary setback rather than a trend reversal, and growth is expected to return to positive territory in the December quarter. ⑷ This result also strengthens HSBC's base case expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% this week. ⑸ HSBC emphasizes that against the backdrop of global trade policy uncertainty, business confidence remains solid, providing a stronger basis for the Bank of Japan to proceed with further interest rate hikes.
