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2025-12-15 19:10:20
[Double Non-Farm Payrolls Report Released: First Data Gap in 80 Years – Will the Truth About US Employment Be Revealed?] ⑴ On Tuesday, the US Department of Labor will release two employment reports delayed due to the government shutdown, covering data for October and November. The market will receive its first official answer in months regarding the health of the labor market. ⑵ The report will include the November unemployment rate and some October hiring data, but will lack the October unemployment rate because the survey could not be conducted during the shutdown. This is the first time in nearly 80 years that this monthly indicator has been unavailable. ⑶ The last regular report showed that September saw 119,000 new jobs, stronger than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a four-year high. ⑷ Since September, private sector indicators have shown mixed hiring, with the labor market continuing to cool but not collapse. Economists expect October job growth to decline due to the federal government's delayed resignation plan, but November should see a modest positive growth. (5) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out last week that official data may overestimate monthly job growth by as much as 60,000, meaning that actual job growth may have been weaker over the past period. (6) This report will also include routine revisions to data from previous months, the results of which will affect market expectations for the Fed's policy path, especially given the recent heightened concerns about an economic slowdown.
