2025-12-15 20:59:37
[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for Agricultural Products Market, Edible Oil Sector Weakens Overall, Most Commodities Recommended for Short Selling on Rallies] ⑴ The edible oil sector weakened overall. ⑵ Rapeseed oil futures saw a large-scale reduction in open interest in the 01 contract due to unconfirmed news of COFCO's inquiry regarding Canadian rapeseed futures after March, resulting in a lower opening and continued decline. ⑶ Palm oil futures saw a continued decline in Malaysian exports from March 1st to 15th, with import prices also decreasing. ⑷ Soybean oil followed the downward trend of US soybeans. ⑸ In the spot market, the pre-holiday bulk oil purchasing window for vegetable oil brands is nearing its end, and spot prices are generally weaker. ⑹ Specifically, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 8550 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from yesterday; the spot price of soybean oil was 8480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9520 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton. (7) From a trading logic perspective, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales declined year-on-year in November, with catering and grain/oil sub-categories declining by 0.6% and 3% year-on-year, respectively. Coupled with the current high inventory levels of edible oils, a sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended. (8) Regarding soybean meal, futures have been fluctuating recently. US soybean prices have gradually returned to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, leading to a pullback. (9) Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and ongoing domestic pressure. (10) Recently, tightened customs policies have delayed the arrival of some imported soybeans, causing domestic soybean meal prices to stabilize. (11) Short-term, a sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended. (12) Regarding corn, recent price declines have somewhat dampened farmers' reluctance to sell, leading to increased selling activity. However, inventory levels at northern ports remain low year-on-year. (13) The logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains intact. A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended after a pullback. (14) Continued monitoring of farmers' selling sentiment is necessary. 12. Regarding live pigs, the recent approaching winter solstice, a peak season for cured meat demand, has led to a relatively strong spot market. Coupled with news of swine disease outbreaks in northern China, spot prices have rebounded somewhat. 13. However, the long-term supply easing pattern remains. It is recommended to short the live pig 03 contract on rallies. 14. Attention should be paid to the slaughtering pace and the peak demand during the winter solstice. 15. Regarding eggs, spot prices have been mainly fluctuating within a range recently. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is currently still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. 16. It is recommended to enter short positions at appropriate times, but the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices should be continuously monitored.