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2025-12-15 21:37:31
[New York Fed's December Manufacturing Index Sharply Below Expectations] ⑴ The New York Fed's manufacturing index for December came in at -3.9, far below the market expectation of 10.0 and the previous month's reading of 18.7. ⑵ Business activity declined slightly in December after two consecutive months of expansion, with the overall business conditions index falling sharply from the previous month's high into negative territory. ⑶ New orders remained stable, with about one-third of businesses reporting growth and another third reporting declines. ⑷ Shipments declined slightly, reflecting a weakening of short-term demand. ⑸ Shorter delivery times indicate easing supply chain pressures; however, deteriorating supply availability suggests a return of input constraints. ⑹ Inventories increased slightly, indicating hoarding behavior amid uncertainty. ⑺ Employment grew moderately, with the employment index rising to 7.3, the sixth positive reading in the past seven months; average hours worked declined slightly, indicating limited momentum in labor demand. (8) Input cost growth slowed for the second consecutive month, but remained high; the price paid index fell to 37.6, the lowest level since January; prices collected also declined, slightly easing profit pressures but still remaining at historically high levels. (9) Capital expenditure plans increased, with the capital expenditure index rising to 6.9, indicating moderate investment growth. (10) Businesses became more optimistic about the next six months, with the future business conditions index rising to its highest level since January, and expectations for new orders and shipments also improved significantly. (11) Businesses expect price pressures to remain high, and inventories are expected to expand further. (12) Overall, current activity has slowed, but forward-looking optimism has increased; inflationary pressures are easing but not eliminating, and employment and investment conditions continue to support the gradual recovery of the manufacturing sector.
