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2025-12-16 13:18:42
[Core Retail Sales Data Draws Attention; Weak Signs May Strengthen Rate Cut Expectations] 1. The US core retail sales report, to be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, is attracting significant market attention. It serves not only as a barometer of market sentiment but also as a key indicator of consumer behavior and its impact on the overall economy. 2. If the actual data falls short of the market consensus of 0.2% growth, it may indicate that US household spending is slowing, prompting businesses to adopt more cautious strategies in hiring, production expansion, and inventory management. While retail data itself may not directly trigger dramatic market price fluctuations, it clearly reveals the health of the consumer sector, which constitutes the mainstay of the US economy. 3. Consumption, as a core driver of economic growth, is also an important basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Weak data may strengthen investors' expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than anticipated to support the economy. Therefore, this report is often regarded by market participants as an important barometer for assessing economic momentum, predicting the direction of monetary policy, and forecasting the outlook for risky assets.
