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2025-12-16 13:49:18
[Rising US Unemployment Rate Expectations Draw Attention; Markets May Adjust Policy and Economic Path Expectations] 1. The market widely expects the upcoming US unemployment rate data to rise slightly from 4.4% to 4.5%. If this change is confirmed, it may indicate that the labor market is gradually easing, which will have multiple impacts on financial markets. 2. Investors may therefore increase their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated to support the economy, even if inflation remains above the policy target. This expectation may drive down Treasury yields and boost the prices of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. For the stock market, on the one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts may generally benefit risk sentiment, but on the other hand, the slowdown in household income and consumer spending implied by the rising unemployment rate may also keep the market (especially consumer-related sectors) cautious. 3. Weak labor data may intensify external political scrutiny of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Some believe that even if he personally judges the economy to remain stable, pressure from various parties may prompt the Federal Reserve to take action. If the rising unemployment rate is accompanied by weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll growth, the market may interpret this as the economy not being on the verge of recession, but rather entering a controlled, moderate slowdown phase. This "soft landing" scenario might be seen by some investors as evidence that the US economy is shifting towards slower but more sustainable growth. 4. If weak job growth and rising unemployment continue, the US economy may follow a path of moderate expansion, a gradually cooling labor market, and more cautious consumer spending. In this scenario, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodative policy stance will increase significantly, and the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate. The market will also adjust its price expectations for stocks, bonds, and various assets accordingly.
