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[US Bureau of Labor Statistics to Release Combined Employment Report; Missing Key October Data Draws Attention] 1. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release its closely watched combined employment report for October and November on Tuesday. Due to the government shutdown, data collection was interrupted, resulting in the absence of several key details in this report. Notably, the October unemployment rate will not be calculated, marking the first time this data series has been missing since 1948. 2. The employment report typically consists of household and business surveys. During the shutdown, household surveys could not be conducted, making it impossible to generate household-based indicators such as the October unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-to-population ratio. However, business survey data (used to calculate nonfarm payrolls, hours worked, and wages) continued to be collected electronically during the shutdown, allowing the BLS to calculate October's nonfarm payroll data after the government resumed operations. The November survey collection period was extended, and processing time increased accordingly. 3. Economists generally believe that the shutdown has had a limited impact on the data quality of business surveys, and may even have increased the response rate due to the extended collection period (the business survey collection rate reached 80.2% in September, significantly higher than the average of 61.8% over the previous 12 months). However, it should be noted that the October data may be biased due to the Trump administration's plan to scale back the survey—more than 150,000 federal employees were removed from the government payroll list at the end of September, which may affect the employment statistics. 4. According to the survey, economists predict that non-farm payrolls will increase by 40,000-50,000 in November (compared to 119,000 in September). The median forecast for the November unemployment rate remains at 4.4%. In its update note on Monday, the BLS mentioned that the variance of its labor force estimate in the November household survey was "slightly higher than normal" due to adjustments in statistical weights, and it is expected to revert to the normal methodology in December, with the impact gradually fading in the coming months.